Betting AFC West Teams: Denver Broncos

Kevin Stott

Thursday, July 23, 2015 12:56 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 23, 2015 12:56 PM UTC

The Broncos seem to be falling from the list of the elite teams in the NFL. Let’s look at some tough games, who the Broncos drafted and offer up a bunch of picks from all the perceived Logic within.

This May be the Season the Broncos Fall From the Ranks of NFL’s Elite
The Denver Broncos (14/1 to win Super Bowl, Heritage) are slowly aging like your couch or mattress, still a big part of the picture, but possibly in the last season of being considered among the Elite Teams in the NFL, along with the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots (8/1, William Hill), Seattle Seahawks (+450, Bet365) and the Green Bay Packers (+650, bet365), likely to be replaced by the upstart Indianapolis Colts (10/1, bet365). And, as you can see, Oddsmakers and the general Public are thinking the same thing. Denver (5/1 to win AFC, BetVictor) is a football team that goes as its’ QB goes and its’ QB is 39-year-old Peyton Manning (101.5 QBR, 4,727 yards, 39 TDs), a man who turn 40 years old next March 24, a point in Time in which Manning the Sorta Elder may actually be retired from the NFL. So obviously, the script for 1st-year Head Coach Gary Kubiak and Broncos General Manager John Elway—both former QBs for Denver—is to try to get Old Boy Peyton one more Super Bowl ring before he (presumably) rides off into the Orange-and-Blue sunset. But for the Broncos (-187 to win AFC West, bet365) and Manning (5/1 to win NFL Offensive MVP, 5Dimes) to even get to Super Bowl 50 lost clutch TE Julius Thomas to the Jaguars through Free Agency and the team let go of also aging and concussion-worn Wes Welker. So, Denver (12-4 SU in 2014, 8-0 Home) may be on the downswing this season, but it may be hard to distinguish how much with the Chiefs (9-7), Raiders (3-13), who went winless on the Road last season, and Chargers (9-7) in the AFC West, a division which could fall to the league’s worst if all four disappoint.

So backing Manning (101-82-5 ATS Off Win) and Denver (8-8 ATS) to win the AFC West (-187, bet365) does actually seem like a decent Futures Book bet to make here in the Summer. Why? Denver was tied for 11th in the NFL last season in Turnover Differential with +5 and the Defense was good enough while the Offense, behind Manning, RBs CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, aforementioned TE Thomas, WR Demaryius Thomas (111 receptions, 1,619 yards, 11 TDs, 14.6 ypc), underrated WR Emmanuel Sanders, WR Wes Welker and others scored an NFL-high 482 points. Touchdown! And it seems Old Boy Peyton could probably (still) usw 34-year-old Free Agent Welker (49 receptions, 464 yards, 2 TDs). Possession receivers that run short, Button-Hook-type routes, are great gaining valuable yards after catch, and who can get crucial First Downs are vital, as Tom Brady and the Patriots know very well with Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman. Bringing Welker, a former Patriots player also, back may be the little difference between the Broncos making or not making the AFC Championship game, although GM Elway did a good job filling the big void left by TE Julian Thomas’s departures by signing the Ravens Owen Daniels, a big loss for Baltimore.


Broncos QB Depth
Peyton Manning—Brock Osweiler—Zac Dysert—Trevor Siemian


Who’s New and Could Have an Impact?
Free Agent TE Owen Daniels (Ravens), Rookie OLB Shane Ray (Missouri), Rookie OT Ty Sambrailo (Colorado State), Rookie TE Jeff Heuerman (Ohio State), Rookie C Mike Garcia (Florida), Rookie CB Lorenzo Doss (Tulane), Rookie DT Darius Kilgo (Maryland), Rookie QB Trevor Siemian (Northwestern), Rookie CB Tavean Nixon (Tulane), Rookie LB Josh Furman (Oklahoma State), Free Agent DL Antonio Smith (Raiders), S Darian Stewart (Ravens), G Shelley Smith (Dolphins), Free Agent TE Marcel Jensen (Jaguars), Free Agent WR Solomon Patton (Buccaneers), Free Agent LB Reggie Walker (Chargers), DE Vance Walker (Chiefs)


Who’s Gone from the Roster?
TE Julius Thomas (Jaguars), WR Wes Welker (Released, Still Unsigned Free Agent)


Possible Losses on Schedule
Week 1: RAVENS; Week 2: at Chiefs; Week 3: at Lions; Week 5: at Raiders; Week 8: PACKERS; Week 9: at Colts; Week 12: Patriots; Week 13 at Chargers; Week 15 at Steelers


Some Good Potential Betting Spots in Regular Season
Bet against Peyton Manning and the Broncos when they play the Old Man’s old team, the Indianapolis Colts in Naptown in Week 9 (also a good Over). Denver is 3-11 ATS L14 vs. Indianapolis and the Broncos are 1-6 ATS L7 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Also, in the week before, Week 8, fading the Broncos at Home at Sports Authority Field in Denver when they play Aaron Rodgers and the Packers seems wise with Green Bay a little better, Denver a little worse and the Cheeseheads 3-0 ATS L3 vs the Broncos.


Sarcastic Super Bowl Matchup and Odds to Make You Snicker
Denver Broncos vs. Washington Redskins 465/1 (5Dimes)


Any Good Broncos Futures Bets Now? 
The Broncos (8-9 ATS) will probably finish 10-6 or right around that mark in the Regular Season, so betting their Regular Season Team Win Total Over (-130, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) or Under seems valueless as the 6 AFC West games against the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers—Denver went 6-0 in the Division last year—will likely result in a 5-1 or another 6-0 record this season while the tough games against the Ravens, Packers, Colts, Patriots and Steelers will probably end in 3 or maybe 4 Losses if everything goes wrong. Making a bet on the Broncos to get to the Super Bowl by winning the AFC this year seems pointless, and the 5/1 NFL odds just aren’t good enough. But, backing Denver to win the AFC West at -187 (bet365) does seem like a good bet, with the Orange Crush having Manning to lead the way and the other three teams having their own issues and only being able to garner 1 Win in 19 games against the Broncos (1-18 SU) over the L3 seasons. And, that’s not good.


Recent Relevant Trends
Broncos 4-0 ATS L4 on Road at Chargers; Broncos 6-0-1 ATS L7 vs Raiders, 4-0 ATS L4 Away in Oakland; Broncos 5-1 ATS L6 vs Browns; Broncos 4-1 ATS L5 vs Chiefs, 5-1 L6 ATS Away at Kansas City; Broncos 3-11 ATS L14 vs Colts, 1-6 ATS L7 Away at Indianapolis; Broncos 3-8 ATS L11 vs Ravens; Broncos 1-4 L5 ATS vs Lions; Broncos 0-3 ATS L3 vs Packers; Broncos 1-7 ATS L8 Home vs Chargers; Broncos 2-6 ATS L8 vs Patriots; Broncos 1-6-2 L9 vs Bears, 1-4 ATS L5 at Chicago


Broncos Players to Watch
QB Peyton Manning, WR Emmanuel Sanders, WR Demaryius Thomas, RB CJ Anderson, TE Owen Daniels, WR Andre Caldwell, K Connor Barth, LOLB DeMarcus Ware, ROLB Von Miller, CB Aqib Talib, Rookie OLB Shane Ray (Missouri), Rookie OT Ty Sambrailo (Colorado State), Rookie TE Jeff Heuerman (Ohio State), Rookie C Mike Garcia (Florida), Rookie CB Lorenzo Doss (Tulane), Rookie DT Darius Kilgo (Maryland), Rookie QB Trevor Siemian (Northwestern), Rookie CB Tavean Nixon (Tulane), Rookie LB Josh Furman (Oklahoma State), TE Virgil Green, RB Ronnie Hillman, RB Montee Ball


Bet Against Denver Broncos In Regular Season
Week 8—at Home vs Green Bay Packers (Broncos 0-3 ATS L3 vs Packers); Week 9—on Road at Indianapolis Colts (Broncos 3-11 ATS L14 vs Colts, 1-6 ATS L7 Away at Indianapolis)

Must Read: Can the Denver Broncos Lead the League in Scoring?

Bet On Denver Broncos In Regular Season
Week 6—on Road at Oakland Raiders (Broncos 6-0-1 ATS L7 vs Raiders, 4-0 ATS L4 at Chargers); Week 13—on Road at San Diego Chargers (Broncos 4-0 ATS L4 Away at Chargers)


Futures Book Bet On Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to win AFC West -187 (bet365)

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