Betting AFC East Teams: Miami Dolphins

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, July 22, 2015 5:49 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 22, 2015 5:49 PM UTC

Let’s look at some potential losses, betting trends, new players and make some picks on this Miami team which may offer some profits by fading the optimism of them having success in the coming 2015 Regular Season.

Miami Dolphins: These Football Fish Are in the Wrong Place at the Wrong Time
The Miami Dolphins (33/1 to win Super Bowl 50, bet365) landed the biggest Free Agent prize in the Offseason when they signed Detroit Lions star DL Ndamukong Suh to a 6-year, $114 million contract ($60 million guaranteed) which included tidy little $25.5 million signing bonus—or probably more money than all US Presidents have earned in office combined for all 239 years of the nation’s existence. So, it apparently pays to be Big and Mean and play Games with leather balls in the 21st Century. Miami (16/1 to win AFC, BetVictor) and General Manager Dennis Hickey did a pretty admirable job in the recent NFL Draft, landing talented Louisville WR DeVante Parker with the #14 Pick in Round 1 and Oklahoma NT Jordan Phillips in Round 2, so the Dolphins (4/1 to win AFC East, bet365)—who finished 8-8 last season—seem to have done a good job strengthening themselves on both sides of the ball it appears this Spring and Summer so Head Coach Joe Philbin should be happy with the Miami roster with which he has to work now. And all good NFL teams need a decent QB, and as little controversy or competition at the position as possible when the Regular Season has started, and the Dolphins can enjoy that luxury with Ryan Tannehill (#14 Total QBR in 2014, 59.1) behind Center. But for many, the jury is still out on the 26-year-old Texas A&M product.

As you can see, the Dolphins (8-8 SU, 4-4 Home, 4-4 Road, 3-3 Division, 6-6 Conference) were a dead .500 team in a number of places last season, and Miami only outscored opponents by 15 points over the course of their 16-game Regular Season schedule (388 PF-373 PA), so, this team which is supposed to have made such great strides is still the definition of average and 2015 could be a rough year for the Fish, despite the addition of Suh and a potential NFL Rookie of the Year, Louisville WR DeVante Parker (25/1 to win NFL Rookie of the Year, 5Dimes), who will plug in nicely where departed Free Agent Mike Wallace (Vikings) once was. The Dolphins also have a decent Rushing attack, spearheaded by local product (Miami-Florida) Lamar Miller (1,009 Rushing Yards) at RB. And although in the AFC East, Miami won’t benefit from any Deflategate Suspension to New England Patriots QB Tom Brady, as the Fish don’t play New England until Week 8 when they travel north to Foxboro to dance with the Super Bowl champs (Patriots -6, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, NFL Games of the Year). 

And that particular game brings up a possibility noticed when handicapping the Miami Dolphins schedule here at Sportsbook Review a month ago—that this team’s schedule may resemble a fat man climbing a steep mountain in September and the first half of October only to reach the peak in mid-October and then fall quickly down the other side of the mountain, injuring himself and then wondering what happened in a big snowpile on the bottom. Why? Because my forecast, which has Miami—tied for 16th in the NFL last season in Turnover Differential with +2—getting off to a sparkly 5-0 start, then losing in Week 5 to the Houston Texans at Home before stumbling in that aforementioned big game at Gillette Stadium in Week 6 to the Patriots and going 1-10 the rest of the way to finish a miserable 6-10, creating waves of Dolphins tears. Dolphins cry, right? Dig if you will the picture... And playing in the rugged, beat ‘em up AFC East is no walk in the park for a team from sunny southern Florida either with 6 games every season against teams from the Northeast (Patriots, Bills, New York Jets) where the residents talk funny and have started some 111-year strike on the letter “r”. So, betting the Dolphins Regular Season Team Win Total Under their posted Total of 9 (Under -130, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) seems smart, even if the 6-10 is way, way off.


Dolphins QB Depth
Ryan Tannehill—Matt Moore—Josh Freeman—-McLeod Bethel-Thompson


Who’s New and Could Have an Impact?
Free Agent DL Ndamukong Suh (Lions), Rookie WR DeVante Parker (Louisville), Rookie DL Jordan Phillips (Oklahoma), Rookie G Jamil Douglas (Arizona State), Rookie RB Jay Ajayi (Boise State), Rookie S Cedric Thompson (Minnesota), Rookie WR Tony Lippett (Michigan State), Free Agent WR Greg Jennings (Packers), Free Agent LT Albert Branden (Chiefs), Free Agent S Louis Delmas (Lions), Free Agent DT Earl Mitchell (Texans), Free Agent CB Brent Grimes (Falcons)


Possible Wins on Schedule
Week 1: at Redskins; Week 2: at Jaguars; Week 3: BILLS; Week 4: at Jets; Week 6: TEXANS; Week 11 at Jets; Week 13 GIANTS; Week 15 at San Diego


Some Good Potential Betting Spots in Regular Season
Fading the Fish on the Road in the chilly month of November where they have a distinct Weather Disadvantage seems wise with Away dates at Buffalo in Week 9 and Philadelphia in Week 10 seem like the choice cuts of meat. and picking on their Sunshine State rivals, the Jaguars in Jacksonville in Week 2 (after a potential 2-0 start) and laying the lumber also seems prudent.


Any Good Dolphins Futures Bets Now?
The Dolphins (7-9 ATS) won’t make the Super Bowl and winning the AFC East seems challenging with the Patriots so dominant and the Buffalo Bills expected to be much improved. So that leaves the Dolphins Regular Season Team Win Total, which has a posted Total of 9 (Under -130, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). So, with a forecast of a 6-10 Regular Season mark for Miami, betting that Futures Book Under is the prescription, but remember the Roller Coaster nature of the Dolphins schedule, and how hard Weeks 5 through the end of the season could be (Patriots twice, Texans, Bills, Eagles, Cowboys, Ravens, Chargers, Colts) for this team. And there is a slight possibility that Miami loses all 9 of those games, thus winning Season Team Win Total Under bettors with an easy cash.


Recent Relevant Trends
Dolphins 3-0 ATS L3 vs Jaguars, 3-0 ATS L3 in Jacksonville; 3-0 ATS L3 vs Giants; Dolphins 3-0 ATS L3 at Home vs Patriots but 0-3 ATS L3 Away; Dolphins 7-2 ATS L9 vs Chargers; Dolphins 0-5 ATS L5 vs Eagles; Dolphins 0-5 ATS L5 vs Ravens, 1-5 ATS L6 at Home; Dolphins 0-3 ATS L3 vs Jets; Dolphins 1-3 ATS L4 Away vs Titans; Dolphins 1-3 ATS L4 vs Bills but 3-1 ATS L4 in Miami; Dolphins


Dolphins Players to Watch
Free Agent DL Ndamukong Suh (Lions), QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Lamar Miller, Free Agent WR Greg Jennings (Packers), Rookie WR Devante Parker (Louisville), WR Kenny Stills, WR Jarvis Landry, Rookie WR Tony Lippett (Michigan State), TE Jordan Cameron, Rookie RB Jay Ajayi (Boise State), Free Agent LT Albert Branden (Chiefs), Rookie G Jamil Douglas (Arizona State), DE Cameron Wake, Rookie DL Jordan Phillips (Oklahoma), Free Agent DT Earl Mitchell (Texans), Free Agent S Louis Delmas (Lions), Free Agent CB Brent Grimes (Falcons), Rookie S Cedric Thompson (Minnesota)

Bet Against Miami Dolphins In Regular Season: Week 7—at Home vs Houston Texans (Dolphins 0-3 ATS L3 vs Texans, 0-3 ATS L3 at Home vs Houston); Week 9—at Buffalo Bills (Dolphins 0-3 ATS L4 on Road vs Bills); Week 10—at Philadelphia Eagles (Dolphins 0-5 ATS L5 vs Eagles); Week 11—at Home vs Dallas Cowboys (Dolphins -2½, (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, NFL Games of the Year)

Bet On Miami Dolphins In Regular Season: Week 2—on Road vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Dolphins 3-0 ATS L3 Away at Jacksonville); Week 15—on Road at San Diego Chargers (Dolphins 7-2 ATS L9 vs Chargers)

Miami Dolphins Regular Season Team Win Total Pick: Under 9 -130 (Westgate LV SuperBook)

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