#Betting101: Sharps Getting Busy With Dallas for Week 7 NFL Picks

Jason Lake

Tuesday, October 17, 2017 7:59 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2017 7:59 PM UTC

The Dallas Cowboys probably won’t have Ezekiel Elliott in their backfield, but that might make them a stronger NFL pick for Sunday’s game against the San Francisco 49ers.

Even for the Dallas Cowboys, it was a controversial week off. Jerry Jones threatened to bench any players who kneel during the National Anthem. NT Stephen Paea (retired) and CB Nolan Carroll (cut) both left the team. And unless there are more legal shenanigans on the way, RB Ezekiel Elliott will be suspended for the next six games; you’ll probably know the results of Tuesday’s “emergency” hearing by the time you read this.

All this negative news has scared away bettors for Sunday’s road game (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX) against the San Francisco 49ers; our consensus reports show a slim majority putting San Francisco in their NFL picks as a 6-point puppy. However, check out those expanded consensus reports for Week 7, where over 79 percent of the amount wagered is on the Cowboys (2-3 SU and ATS). They’ve got the biggest average bet on the board so far at $133, including three $1000+ wagers. The Niners (0-6 SU, 4-2 ATS) are pulling in just $34 a pop with zero big bets. Looks like Dallas is the sharp side in this bad boy.

Zeke and Destroy
There’s plenty of betting logic behind picking Dallas. They’re coming off a bye week, and according to Walter Cherepinsky’s NFL betting trends, the Cowboys are 4-2 ATS in this situation under head coach Jason Garrett. Plus, the betting public usually overreacts to injuries and suspensions to “skill” players, especially running backs, and Elliott only has 3.7 yards per carry after leading the league in rushing last year.

Does the math support this logic? FiveThirtyEight has an Elo-based spread of Dallas –7 attached to this game, and the Football Power Index projections at ESPN are in agreement. We’d prefer to see at least a two-point difference between the projections and the NFL odds, but there’s a pretty big difference between –6 and the magic –7, so a small bet on the ‘Boys seems reasonable.



Free NFL Pick: Cowboys –4.5 (–123)Our friendly friends at BetOnline are even giving us a bargain price at press time: Dallas –4.5 (–123). According to Wizard of Odds, the “fair price” for buying your way down from –6 to –4.5 is about 15 cents, so BetOnline is sparing us a couple of cents while also lowering our variance on this wager. That’s compared to –6 at the standard –110 vigorish, mind you. There are some –105 deals out there, so we could take that line instead, but let’s go ahead and buy that lower variance. It could come in handy.

Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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