Have people bought into the Los Angeles Rams yet? They’re small home faves on the early NFL odds board for Sunday’s game against the popular New Orleans Saints.
Apparently the books took a bath Sunday night when the Philadelphia Eagles (–6 away) stomped the Dallas Cowboys 37-9. We’re not used to being on the “square” side here at the home office, but we’re not complaining after recommending the Eagles at –3 last week. Everything went according to the script; RB Alfred Morris (5.4 yards per carry) did fine in place of Ezekiel Elliott, but without LT Tyron Smith, QB Dak Prescott was sacked four times and committed four turnovers. Not having LB Sean Lee on the field made it easy for the Philly offense, too. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Now it’s time to look at the early Week 12 NFL odds, and just like last week, business is pretty slow – even with those three Thanksgiving Day games on the docket. The most interesting matchup so far sees the Los Angeles Rams (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) hosting the New Orleans Saints (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) on Sunday, kicking off at 4:25 p.m. Eastern on CBS. The expanded consensus reports show 51 percent of bettors on New Orleans, but 66 percent of the amount wagered landing on Los Angeles. Seems like the Rams might be a sharp NFL pick this week as 2.5-point home faves.
It makes sense at first blush. A closer look at the consensus numbers shows 67 percent of first responders taking the Rams. And heading into Week 11, Los Angeles was the No. 1 team on the efficiency charts at Football Outsiders, ahead of New Orleans at No. 2. We’ll see if that changes when the updates come in for Week 12, after the Rams lost in Minnesota and the Saints scrambled to beat Washington at the Superdome in overtime.
Unfortunately, our analytics department doesn’t like the Rams here. FiveThirtyEight has the Saints projected at –1.5, and ESPN’s Football Power Index is calling Sunday’s game a virtual pick‘em. Curious. Maybe it has to do with the cottony-soft schedule Los Angeles has played thus far. New Orleans hasn’t been tested much, either, but it has won eight straight games at 7-1 ATS. Hmmmph.
The average bet size on the Rams is only $78, so it’s not like the sharps are emptying the clip on Sunday’s game. Let’s throw this minnow back into the pond and see if we can catch something with a bigger profit margin later in the week. That’s #Betting101.