#Betting101: It Hurts To Be A Patriot

Friday, September 15, 2017 5:59 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 15, 2017 5:59 PM UTC

The New England Patriots started the 2017 campaign with a thud. Will they bounce back this Sunday against the New Orleans Saints? Or is the Big Easy the right NFL pick?

Time sure flies by these days. It seems like yesterday we were throwing the spotlight on the New England Patriots as a potential bounce-back pick for Sunday’s road game (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) against the New Orleans Saints. But here were are in the year 2027, with Jimmy Garoppolo already leaving Tom Brady in the dust with six Super Bowl rings. What’s that? Oh, snap. Spoiler alert, folks.

So... how about those Patriots? They opened as 4.5-point road faves on Sunday’s NFL odds board before moving to –6 at press time; some books even have New England at –7. Our expanded consensus reports show 67 percent of bettors and 69 percent of the money on the defending champs, but these are tiny bets being thrown around: $31 on average. The sharps don’t seem very interested in throwing a lot of money at the Pats for their Week 2 NFL picks. It’s easy to see why.

Officer Hightower Is Off-Duty

The math certainly doesn’t work out. FiveThirtyEight projects New England at 64 percent to win Sunday’s game, or –4 as an Elo-based spread. ESPN’s Football Power Index numbers are even less optimistic at 58.7 percent. That’s closer to New England –2.5, according to Wizard of Odds.

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Here are the answers to "What injuries were Patriots players dealing with during training camp?" Today's practice report: pic.twitter.com/fbwfHciILE

— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) September 4, 2017

Then you have all those injuries. The Pats got put through the shredder in their season-opening loss to the Kansas City Chiefs; it looks like both LB Dont’a Hightower (knee) and WR Danny Amendola (concussion) could miss Sunday’s game after sitting out Thursday’s practice. New England’s defense turned into putty after Hightower left the game in the second half. This is outstanding news for the Saints and their tailback troika of Mark Ingram, Adrian Peterson and Alvin Kamara.

Do You Like Pancakes?

Then again, the Saints offensive line was not very good in their Week 1 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, and that was on Monday, so they’re playing on a short week, while New England has been off since last Thursday. Plus, RT Zach Strief sprained his MCL in Minnesota and won’t face the Patriots.

Which brings us to Sunday’s total. It’s skyrocketed from 54 at the open to 56.5 as we go to press. That’s almost a mandatory bet on the UNDER right there. It is the Saints and the Patriots at the Superdome, so don’t bet the farm on this total, but with New Orleans struggling on the offensive line and Brady missing yet another of his favorite targets in Amendola, a small wager on the UNDER seems reasonable enough. In fact, let’s drop the standard underdog-UNDER parlay on this bad boy. The two sides go great together, like pancakes and maple syrup. Fat Sunday FTW.

Free Pick: Saints +7; UNDER 56.5 (–105)
Best Lines Offered: at Sports Interaction &  Heritage

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