The New England Patriots just lost Super Bowl LII, but they're favored to win the next one. Of course, we’ll be looking a lot further down the odds list for our NFL picks.
That was the damndest football game I’ve ever seen. In case you missed it, the Philadelphia Eagles beat the New England Patriots 41-33 on Sunday, giving the Eagles their first Super Bowl championship and -- much more importantly -- cashing in as +4.5-point underdogs on the NFL odds board. Another Super Bowl win for the dogs.
Alas, Super Bowl LII was also historically lopsided towards offense, going way over the posted total of 49 points. That screwed up our underdog-under parlay here at the ranch. But we did get the "over" on the Carson Wentz prop, which might have been the easiest Super Bowl pick of them all. Oh, yeah, we also picked the Eagles to win the Big Game before the season even started, when Philly was priced at +4500. We also recommended the Eagles at +1400 heading into the divisional round. Life is good.
So let’s turn our attention to Super Bowl LIII. The Patriots are +500 favorites on the NFL futures market at Bovada, with the Eagles and Green Bay Packers tied at +900. We won’t be recommending any of these teams for your NFL picks. If you’re going to bet on futures, the value is with the outsiders -- teams such as the 2017 Eagles, who were plausible bounce-back candidates heading into Wentz’s sophomore season after going 7-9 SU and 8-8 ATS in 2016.Mr. Smith Goes to Hell
There are so many teams that fit the bill this offseason, it’s hard to pick just one. The longest shot we’d consider is Washington, available at +5000 after pulling off the trade for QB Alex Smith. This is a team that finished No. 11 overall in defensive efficiency last year, according to Football Outsiders, but just No. 20 on offense. Smith’s former team, the Kansas City Chiefs, ranked No. 4 in offensive efficiency. Naturally, the betting market hates Smith and his dinking and dunking. We prefer to hate Washington for other reasons.
I was about to say the San Francisco 49ers are the shortest team on our Super Bowl list at +2000, but they literally just moved to +1800 as I was putting finger to keyboard. QB Jimmy Garoppolo looks like a keeper; too bad San Francisco’s betting value is disappearing into thin air.
Let’s stick with the highly unpopular Washingtonians for a small sum that we don’t mind losing, and may the prolate spheroid be with you in 2018.