#Betting101: Getting Ahead of Thursday’s Odds

Jason Lake

Thursday, September 7, 2017 1:40 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 7, 2017 1:40 PM UTC

With Thursday’s lone FBS game yet to hit the NCAAF odds board, we turn our attention to that “other” game between the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Modern technology has disrupted the traditional schedule to some extent – and forward-thinking sharps need to keep an eye on this. Between the slow death of the 40-hour week and the rise of mobile betting, how many recreational bettors are waiting for the weekend before making their football picks?

Not to mention all those midweek games they’re scheduling these days. Thursday football is an unwelcome aberration for the players and coaches, but the leagues are making a ton of money, so get used to it. Having said that, Thursday’s college football slate has just one game: Idaho State at Utah State. And there aren’t any lines on the NCAAF odds board as we go to press. So let’s turn pro and look at the first game of the 2017 NFL regular season.

Expand Your Horizons

In case you’ve been living under a rock, the New England Patriots are hosting the Kansas City Chiefs this Thursday (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC). The defending Super Bowl champs are 9-point favorites, up from –7.5 at the open; the total has dropped from 50 points to 48.5. Our consensus reports show early and presumably sharp action on both the Patriots and the OVER, but for some reason, the total has dipped instead of rising.

Good thing we have expanded consensus reports on the NFL. These are fantastic because we can get a glimpse of how much action is coming in on both sides, not just how many bettors. This gives a much clearer picture of the betting market, and Thursday’s betting market is... tepid? More wagers have been placed on this game than anything else on the Week 1 slate, but the amounts wagered are fairly small, leaving an average bet size of $51 on the Patriots and $22 on the Chiefs. Too bad we don’t have expanded numbers for the totals, too.


Foxborough Five-0

Fifty bucks is a lot of money to some people. Not for the wiseguys; they tend to have much larger bankrolls than recreational bettors, many of whom don’t even have bankrolls per se. Smaller bets are either coming from the pockets of casual fans, or they’re a reflection of how little profit margin the sharps see in a game. Betting a ton of money on big chalk won’t get you in the Sports Betting Hall of Fame.

Big underdogs are another story. Now that the lines have moved, the Chiefs are a viable NFL pick at the best price on the board, and they might have even more value if you wait until closer to kick-off. But consider keeping that bet size small regardless. Betting a ton of money against the Patriots hasn’t been a very good idea this millennium, either.

Free NFL Pick: Chiefs +10 (-125)
Best Line: at Sports Interaction

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