#Betting101: Early Week 4 NFL Odds Already on the Move

tampa bay bucs

Jason Lake

Tuesday, September 26, 2017 1:02 PM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 26, 2017 1:02 PM GMT

After a strange week of football, we’re back with more betting goodness for Week 4. Looks like the sharps want to fade the New York Giants for their NFL picks – or do they?

Week 3 of the NFL season was a big winner for the books – and for contrarian bettors. Among the underdogs who cashed in last week: Buffalo and Washington, both of them winning at home as 3.5-point puppies. That was up from +3 when we checked in on them. As always, if you’re thinking about fading the public with your NFL picks, consider waiting until closer to kickoff in case you can get a better price.

That’s for later in the week, though. Right now, we want to jump on those early Week 4 lines and see if we can ride the coattails of sharp bettors. There’s one game in particular that catches our eye here at the ranch: Sunday’s late matinee (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX) between the New York Giants and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are 3-point home faves at press time, down from -4.5 at the open, but our expanded consensus reports tell a very different tale about how the early betting has progressed.
 

Blue Men Group

The usual caveats for small sample size apply here, but while early bettors are split roughly down the middle between these two teams, over 78 percent of the amount wagered has landed on Tampa Bay (1-1 SU and ATS). Curious. Our roving band of street urchins (aka Google) tells us there may have been more early action on New York than our surveys have picked up thus far – which would explain the NFL odds moving toward the G-Men.

The Giants may have been a good bet at +4.5, but we’re thinking much differently at +3. The stat gurus at FiveThirtyEight like Tampa Bay to win 63 percent of the time, or -3.5 for a kayfabe spread, and ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Bucs winning almost 64 percent of the time, which maps quite nicely to their original -4.5. Again, whatever value there was on Big Blue didn’t last long.
 


This doesn’t look like one of those games to wait for a better line. New York may be 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS, but it did cover last week’s 27-24 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles (-5 at home), who needed a pair of last-minute field goals from Jake Elliott to secure the victory – including the winner from 61 yards out. And New York is the biggest betting market there is, while Tampa toils in relative obscurity. We’ll buy that for a dollar.

Free NFL Pick: Buccaneers -3Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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