#Betting101: Eagles the Hottest Pick on Early Week 11 Lines

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 14, 2017 12:27 AM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 14, 2017 12:27 AM UTC

In a relatively quiet round of early betting, the Philadelphia Eagles are the most popular pick on the Week 11 NFL odds board. But are they a sharp pick against the Dallas Cowboys?

Free NFL Pick: Eagles –3Best Line Offered: Matchbook

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Turns out the Minnesota Vikings were a viable pick after all. We had them in our crosshairs for last week’s game against Washington, a lovely spot with the Vikes as 1-point road favorites coming off the bye, and Minnesota held off a late charge to win 38-30. And it’s a good thing we avoided the Tennessee Titans; they beat the Cincinnati Bengals 24-20 as 4.5-point home faves on the closing line. Discretion is the better part of making NFL picks.

Also important: Getting a jump on the market. The early lines are up on the Week 11 NFL odds board, and things are pretty slow as we go to press. Our expanded consensus reports at SBR show the Philadelphia Eagles getting the most love as 3-point road faves for Sunday night’s game (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC) against the Dallas Cowboys, but the average bet size on Philly is just $67. No single team has reached the $100 mark yet. Tight lines, perhaps? 


Call for Alfred Morris 

Maybe not. FiveThirtyEight projects Dallas to win 53 percent of the time, or –1 for an Elo-based spread. ESPN’s Football Power Index prefers Philadelphia at 50.8 percent in a virtual pick’em. Either way, the computers like the Cowboys to cover more often than not. But do they know about RB Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension? Elliott was one of the league’s best rushers over the past month or so; without him, Dallas lost 27-7 to the Atlanta Falcons last week as 3.5-point road dogs.

Ah, but don’t blame backup RB Alfred Morris. He was good for 53 yards on 11 carries (4.8 yards a pop), while overall Dallas ran 21 times for 107 yards (5.1 yards per) and a touchdown. And that was without LT Tyron Smith, who missed the game with a tender groin. Nobody felt Smith’s absence more than QB Dak Prescott, who was sacked eight times (!) and held to 176 yards passing.

Even worse, lynchpin LB Sean Lee left the game in the first quarter with a bad hammy and did not return. It’s not official yet, but word has it Lee could miss the next three games, and Smith doesn’t look good for Week 11, either. The Eagles have 72 percent of early bettors on their side; we’re joining them for a small, speculative wager based on all these missing Cowboys – and the fact that Philly is a road favorite coming off the bye week. Kind of important.

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