#Betting101: Eagles Still Have All the Value – Thanks to Foles?

Jason Lake

Monday, January 15, 2018 8:27 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 15, 2018 8:27 PM UTC

They might be underdogs in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game, but the Eagles are still the most valuable Super Bowl pick on the NFL odds board.

NFL: Championship Games Futures Odds

You couldn’t have written the script much better for the New England Patriots. Their path to Super Bowl LII was “supposed” to go through the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers. Instead, they got to play the Tennessee Titans (+13.5 away) in the Divisional Round, and in Sunday's AFC Championship Game they will host the Jacksonville Jaguars (+9 away).

With their top threats falling like flies, the Patriots have seen their Super Bowl chances improve to a coin flip. Bovada’s futures market at press time had New England at even money on the NFL odds board, up from +200 last week. The Pats may have been a slim value pick heading into their game against Tennessee, but that’s certainly not the case now.

If you want to talk about real value picks this week, shift your attention to the Philadelphia Eagles, who will be led into the NFC Championship Game against the Minnesota Vikings by QB Nick Foles.

Let’s take one last look at these NFL futures before they’re gone.

Silver Surfer

Once again, we turn to our friendly friends at FiveThirtyEight for their NFL playoff projections. If you have your own power rankings and computer-based projections, excellent; if not, these should help you establish some baseline expectations – and they’re free.

So here’s the skinny: Nate Silver’s crew has the Patriots retaining their title 44 percent of the time. That works out to +127 using the SBR Odds Converter (also free). Because New England is paying out only at even money, we don’t recommend putting them in your NFL picks. The Jaguars are available at +650; FiveThirtyEight has their Super Bowl chances at just 6 percent, which translates to +1567. No sale there, either.

Nick at Nite

Once again, it’s the Eagles driving the bus to Value Town. They upset the Atlanta Falcons (-2.5 away) in the Divisional Round, thanks in part to a competent performance by Foles. Now they’re getting three points at home for Sunday night's NFC title game against the Vikings. The Eagles have seen their Super Bowl odds improve from +1400 to +650, but according to FiveThirtyEight, Philadelphia and Minnesota (+250) each have a 25-percent chance of winning the Big Game. That’s +300 in American odds.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

Saying Brady only has to “beat” Bortles/Keenum/Foles is silly.

Great defenses have historically beat the Pats with Brady. There are 3 great defenses left.

— Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal) January 15, 2018

Does the Silver Squad have it right? Their Elo-based projections do not account for injuries, so Philadelphia’s QB downgrade from Carson Wentz to Foles has to be factored in. However, as a general rule, the betting public tends to value teams improperly when a starting QB goes down. In this case, they’ve pumped up Wentz’s MVP bona fides a little too much, and they’ve treated Foles like a pariah. We’re content to stick with the Eagles under these circumstances, at these odds. How about you?

comment here