#Betting101: Chiefs the Hot Pick on Opening Week 13 Lines

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 28, 2017 2:32 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 28, 2017 2:32 PM UTC

It’s been rough sledding for the Kansas City Chiefs, but the wiseguys are loading up on K.C. for their Week 13 NFL picks, with the New York Jets supplying the opposition.

Free NFL Pick: Chiefs –3Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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These are not the best of times for the Kansas City Chiefs. After starting the 2017 campaign with five straight wins SU and ATS, the Chiefs have gone 1-5 SU and ATS, against mostly weaker opposition. So why are the Chiefs getting so much love on the early Week 13 NFL odds board? The expanded consensus reports show Kansas City with the largest average bet of the bunch at $168, more than double any other team.

Oh, I don’t know ... could it be because the Chiefs are playing the New York Jets (4-7 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) on Sunday? The Jets are in much the same boat as Kansas City, dropping five of their last six games. However, New York is also 3-2-1 ATS during this slide. This is a curious matchup indeed with the Chiefs laying 3 points on the road, down from –4.5 at the open. Could they actually be the correct NFL pick here?


They should be, from a talent standpoint. Through the ups and downs, the Chiefs remain fourth in the AFC at plus-4.3 on the Simple Rating System at Pro Football Reference. The Jets are well below average at minus-4.6 SRS; playing in East Rutherford doesn’t come close to making New York a 3-point puppy according to this metric.

You won’t find much support from the usual computer projections, either. FiveThirtyEight comes closest to giving the Jets some love, pegging them at +3.5 with a 38-percent chance of winning Sunday’s game (1 p.m. ET, CBS). But ESPN’s Football Power Index has Gang Green’s chances at 33.3 percent, or somewhere between +5 and +5.5 according to Wizard of Odds.

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Alex Smith This Season

Games 1-8:
16 TD, 0 INT, 115.4 QB Rating, 8.42 YPC

Since then:
3 TD, 4 INT, 79.1 QB Rating, 6.29 YPC pic.twitter.com/75VnwOeOQE

— The Greek Sportsbook (@BetTheGreek) November 27, 2017

Yet here we are with all this money coming in on Kansas City. Although 57 percent of bettors at press time are on New York (down from 62 percent on our early consensus reports), 75 percent of the cash is on the Chiefs, including the lone $1000+ wager. QB Alex Smith is taking a lot of flak for his team’s recent troubles, but while Smith hasn’t matched his level of play during the first five games, the larger problem is with the K.C. defense, which ranked No. 25 in the NFL heading into Week 13, as per the efficiency charts at Football Outsiders. Maybe playing against the injury-riddled, No. 27-ranked Jets offense will cure what ails Kansas City this week.

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