#Betting101: Are the Patriots a Value Pick Now?

Jason Lake

Monday, January 8, 2018 10:14 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 8, 2018 10:14 PM UTC

The New England Patriots didn’t even play last week, but their chances of winning the Super Bowl improved. Are they the right NFL pick after Saturday’s shenanigans?

NFL: Divisional PlayoffsFree NFL Pick: Eagles +1400Best Line Offered: Bovada

Funny how things always seem to work out for the New England Patriots. They had a bye during the NFL's Wild Card weekend, but their Super Bowl odds at Bovada improved from +220 to +200. That’s because the Tennessee Titans (+8.5 away) came back to beat the Kansas City Chiefs 22-21 on Saturday. The Chiefs had this game well in hand at halftime, but TE Travis Kelce didn’t play the second half because of a concussion, and everything after that went right for the Titans – and the Patriots.

With Kansas City out of the picture, the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots might even have some betting value on the NFL odds board. According to the stat nerds at FiveThirtyEight, New England’s chances of retaining its title have risen from 31 to 34 percent. That translates to +194 using the sweet, sweet SBR Betting Odds Converter. It’s not much betting value at all, but then again, these are the Patriots we’re talking about. They’re 13-point home faves against Tennessee for Saturday night’s Divisional Round matchup. How convenient.

Buy low, sell high

In Saturday’s other divisional game the Atlanta Falcons visit the Philadelphia Eagles, who are getting three points at home – making the Eagles the first-ever No. 1 seed to play the underdog role in this round. That’s because Nick Foles is at quarterback for Philly, filling in for the injured Carson Wentz. If you have the Falcons in your NFL picks at +2500 as we recommended last week, good work, because they’re +650 at press time. The Eagles might be the only real value pick left at +1400 if you don’t mind putting your faith in Foles. He did make the Pro Bowl once.

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Frank Reich: Nick Foles is as aggressive a downfield passer as I’ve been around. Some quarterbacks are dink and dunkers, that’s not Nick Foles. #Eagles #Falcons

— Matt Lombardo (@MattLombardoPHL) January 8, 2018

Pittsburgh kicks off Sunday’s action against the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Steelers shouldn’t have much trouble putting away the Jags as 7.5-point favorites. Then the Minnesota Vikings host the New Orleans Saints in what should be this weekend’s highest-quality contest. The Vikings' Super Bowl chances slipped from 19 to 18 percent after the Wild Card round, but they’re still not worth betting on at +375; 18 percent works out to +456 according to the Odds Converter. Hold percentage not included, of course.

We’ll recommend the Eagles instead at this price, hedging our earlier Atlanta bet in the process – and may the sphere be with you.

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