Bet Vikings & Broncos to Go 'Under' 43 With Your NFL Picks

Kevin Stott

Saturday, October 3, 2015 10:13 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 3, 2015 10:13 PM UTC

Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings head to the Rocky Mountains to face Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field in Denver. Who should we back with our NFL picks?

With a posted Total of 42½ and 43 in the current marketplace, oddsmakers are seeing a fairly low-scoring affair here, but does this necessarily mean a chess match type slog in Colorado? Let’s look at some Totals numbers in the market, analyze what these two have both done scoring- and pace-wise in their first three games and try to make a solid NFL pick or two for our loyal website readers. Giddyup.


Odds Overview

What: NFL Week 4— Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos

Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

When: Sunday, October 4

Time: 4:25 p.m. EDT/1:25 p.m. PDT

TV: FOX, Directv 714, NFL RedZone (US)

Weather: Partly Cloudy, 56°, Winds NE 3-8 mph, 64% Humidity

Current Point Spread: Broncos -7 NFL odds (Pinnacle)

Lowest Total in Marketplace: 42½ (Pretty much everywhere Friday night)

Highest Total in Marketplace: 43 (Station Casinos, The Greek)

Alternate Total: Under 39½ +157, Over 39½ -220 (bet365)

Alternate Total: Under 40 +137, Over 40 -187 (bet365)

Alternate Total: Under 44 -142, Over 44 +105 (bet365)

First Quarter Total: 7½ Under -120 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

First Half Total: 21½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)


Current Realities Heading Into This Game and Some Significant 1Q Box Score Numbers
The Minnesota Vikings (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) head west to Sports Authority Field in Denver on Sunday to meet the unbeaten Denver Broncos (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) and 39-year-old QB Peyton Manning in a pretty big game for Minnesota, but a tough task for the Midwesterners in the Rocky Mountains, at some 5,280-feet Altitude. The Total in this game opened up at 45 and was quickly bet down due to Early Money, Smart Money, the Wiseguys, the Guys Who Tail The Wiseguys and The General Public to where it’s at tonight (Friday), at 42½ in almost all places here in Sin City, Offshore and Online. There are two 43s showing—at The Greek in Jamaica and at Station Casinos here in Las Vegas. Injury-wise, Denver RB CJ Anderson (Toe, Concussion) is listed as Probable, so both come in relatively healthy in terms of having all Skill Position players available on Offense to at least attempt maximum point production.

So far this season, Denver Unders are 2-1 ATS while Minnesota Under are 3-0 ATS. And, Broncos games have seen totals of 33, 55 and 36, while Vikings games have seen 23, 42 and 45 points scored. First Quarters totals (both teams combined) in all 6 Vikings and Broncos games? Denver: 6, 0 and 0. Minnesota: 0, 7 and 3. all six of those would have gone under Sunday First Quarter total of 7½ (-120, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). And that’s 16 Total Points in 6 quarters between the two sides, or an average so far of a miniscule 2.66 ppq.


Final Scores in the Last 10 Meetings Denver Broncos-Minnesota Vikings Series
2011—Broncos 35 Vikings 32

2007—Broncos 22 Vikings 19 (OT)

2003—Vikings 28 Broncos 20

1999—Vikings 23 Broncos 20

1996—Broncos 21 Vikings 17

1993—Vikings 23 Broncos 20

1991—Broncos 13 Vikings 6

1990—Raiders 27 Broncos 22

1987—Vikings 34 Broncos 27

1984—Broncos 42 Vikings 21


Series Trends, Game Expectations and Probable Offensive Gameplans
The Final Scores (listed by a fool who once got a perm in 1984) above come from just too far back in Time to really be deemed handicap-worthy. In 1984, there was no Internet and Tommy Kramer was the Vikings QB and Jan Stenerud was their Kicker. Data that far back is worth looking at, but pretending that because the Broncos and Vikings exploded for 63 points in 1984 matters in 2015 when trying to figure out what will happen this Sunday is almost worthless. Especially when teams had different stadiums back then than they do now and when the culture of scoring the NFL has definitely drifted up over the last two decades. You wouldn’t judge your 7-year-old do with the same approach you would when he was a 7-month-old puppy now would you Pepe? Maybe the three games actually played in this Millennium (48, 41 and 67 points) are worth something, but the play of Denver’s Defense (49 Points Allowed, tied with Cardinals for #3; Jets #1, 41 PA; Panthers #2, 48 PA) this year and the feel gleaned from the first 6 games Denver and Minnesota played is better in judging the Totals number.

Here, expect Minnesota and QB Teddy Bridgewater (4-2 ATS on Road) to struggle trying to get something going and the Purple People Eaters will look to RB Adrian Peterson and try to rely heavily on the Rush...if it works. And if you listened carefully to what new Broncos Head Coach Gary Kubiak (3-0 ATS) is said in the media Friday, he’s still gung-ho about Running the ball via Anderson, Ronnie Hillman and Juwan Thompson to try to make Life a little bit easier on 39-year-old QB Manning (73-68-2 ATS at Home), saying Friday everyone needs to do more for the Broncos Rushing attack including Coaches, Offensive Lineman and the Running Backs themselves. Straight Under talk there. There will be scoring here, just probably not enough and if the Broncos get up by 10 or more points in the 4th Quarter, they may play the Clock more than the Vikings.

Predicted Final Score: Broncos 24 Vikings 17

NFL Picks: First Quarter Under 7½ -120 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), Under 43 at The Greek

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