Bet Underdog in Chiefs vs. 49ers Week 5 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, October 1, 2014 5:16 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2014 5:16 PM UTC

Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers collide in a highly anticipated showdown on Sunday at Levi Stadium, marking one of several marquee matchups in week 5 NFL betting that sports enthusiasts will want to spot on their NFL picks. Join us as we breakdown this clash and serve up choice NFL picks.

Kansas City Chiefs Gutsy Underdogs
Kansas City Chiefs stumbled out of the gates with a shocking 26-10 defeat to the Titans at Arrowhead Stadium. Week 2 NFL betting pit the Chiefs against the Broncos in an impossible matchup, certainly one few would have backed them to win on the road. Where they did come through for NFL bettors was on the spread though; they were the biggest underdogs cashing-in in week 2 when they held the Broncos to a 24-17 score as the 13-point underdogs.

Any misgivings NFL bettors might have indulged in where the Chiefs were concerned then, were quickly dispelled. The Chiefs showed guts and determination in the late push against the Broncos, momentum they’ve carried through the next two rounds all while beating the Dolphins and Patriots to improve to 2-2-0 SU and 3-1-0 ATS on the season.

Monday’s win over the Patriots saw the Chiefs once again cover as the 4-point underdogs, marking their third straight successful cover of the season as the underdog (they are 3-0-0 ATS as the pups, 2-0-0 ATS as the away pups this season). What made this last cover so spectacular was the manner in which they accomplished the feat, tearing apart Tom Brady and the Patriots to shreds in a 41-14 victory that was both spectacular for Chiefs fans as it was soul gnashing to Patriots’ fans.

Needless to say, the Chiefs are dubbed the underdogs once again in NFL betting markets. They are the 6.5-point underdogs ahead of their clash with the San Francisco 49ers. Prior to the Chiefs Monday clash with the Patriots, few Niners fans would have admitted to being concerned about this upcoming week 5 matchup at Levi Stadium. Now, in the aftermath of Monday’s bloodbath at Arrowhead, it does seem a tad premature to write off the Chiefs, who seem to be relishing their role as the plucky underdogs that somehow find a way turn the NFL odds in their favour particularly against the spread.

Lacking Lustre at Levi Stadium, Should Niners Be Worried
If you got the 49ers early in the week as the 4.5-point chalk, you were pleased as punch as they just lay the points at the expense of the Philadelphia Eagles in a 26-21 win, all while finally snapping the negative two-game losing streak and negative trend at home. But in the wake of bonhomie, should Niners fans be worried about the mounting issues on the field?

 After four rounds of NFL betting, the Niners are only 2-2 SU and ATS. They are the most penalised team in the NFL – although some are bad calls, enough calls are warranted, which only means they’re doing themselves in from game-to-game. Worst of all, Kaepernick is making an awful lot of mistakes – from miscommunication with Harbaugh on the sidelines to allowing the play clock to wind down, and more... all of which have combined for a sputtering Niners O-line. They just can’t get any consistent rhythm from drive-to-drive.

Kaepernick is without doubt a brilliant athlete and quarterback but sometimes he loses focus and that has cost the Niners. One and all have to clean up their act if they hope to establish themselves as contenders in the NFC West, where they are sat third behind Arizona (3-0) and Seattle (2-1).

What the Niners did well against the Eagles was they got their defense going. (Ironically, both offenses on that day left much to be desired while defenses stepped up for both teams.) The Niners ran the ball a lot  (218 yards on 42 attempts) and defense lockdown the Eagles to just 192 yards passing and 22 yards rushing. In fact, defense was so good it held the high-scoring Eagles offense pointless on the day.

Chiefs +225 vs. Niners -275, O/U 44.5
If you are looking for value NFL picks SU on this game, at first glance the Chiefs look tempting at +225 NFL odds. Certainly, their two-game winning streak underscores that notion, as well the way they dismantled Tom Brady and Company was simply terrifying and could send a mix of dread and trepidation to the Niners locker room before they even traipse onto the luscious grass of Levi Stadium. Underdog backers may also be encouraged by the notion the Niners are struggling this season, not quite as formidable as they’ve been in the last two seasons. And finally, the Chiefs’ 7-4-0 SU record as the away team since 2013 looks good, albeit contained within is a so-so 2-3 SU as the away underdog since last season.

Niners’ backers will put their faith into a 16-7-0 SU record  since last season, which includes a 7-3-0 SU mark at home and as the home favourite. When Niners play the sort of lockdown defense they did against the Eagles, they are tough to beat. Granted Kaepernick is making a lot of mistakes right now, and their offense looks to be sputtering. But avid Niners’ fans will recall last season when the Niners were in a similar position: 2-2 SU in four rounds of NFL betting after winning their opener convincingly over Green Bay, then laying back-to-back eggs against Seattle and Indianapolis before bouncing back against St. Louis Rams. That win in week 4  proved to be the beginning of a five-game winning stretch that took them into a week 9 bye with a 7-2 record. One could argue, therefore, Kaepernick and company are just slow starters. Once they get going, they’re tough to beat. They righted the ship to a 2-2 mark with a win over the Eagles and now it’s time to get going at the expense of a Chiefs side that won’t be pushovers but will be hard pressed nonetheless to get the away win at Levi Stadium.


NFL Betting Verdict
Both teams are 2-2 going into week 5 and something is going to have to give. One has to like the home favourites here for many reasons, not least because it’s too soon to give up on the Niners. Therefore, take the Niners at -275 to win SU and the Over 44.5 on your NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Niners SU and Over 44.5 at BetOnline

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