Bet the 'Under' for Patriots vs. Dolphins Week 1 NFL

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, September 6, 2014 5:46 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 6, 2014 5:46 PM UTC

Our NFL betting odds expert Ross Benjamin breaks down the Patriots/Dolphins game on Sunday. This is an insightful NFL handicapping article that’s concluded with a free pick on the total.

AFC East Rivals in Season Opener
The Dolphins will host the Patriots on Sunday at Miami with the opening kickoff slated for 1:00 PM ET. According to NFL betting odds the Patriots are a 3.5 point road favorite and the posted total is 47.0. The last 4-times these clubs have met, each of those games has gone under the total, and the average combined score was 37.3 points per contest. The Patriots have won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these teams.


The Skinny on the Pats
The Patriots have seen 6 of their last 8-games versus division opponents go under the total. New England has also seen 7 of their last 9 road games go under the number when the total is 45.5 or more. Unfortunately they’ve gone just 1-8 ATS in those 9-games. The Patriots have gone 0-6 ATS in their 6 as a road favorite of 2.0 or more. New England has won their last 10 season openers.


The Story on the Fish
The Dolphins have seen their last 11-games go under the total when facing a division opponent. Those 11-contests averaged a combined 30.1 point per game. They’ve also seen 9 of their last 10-games go under the total when installed as an underdog, and the total is 40.0 or less. The Dolphins have seen 6 of their last 7 season openers go under the total.  Miami has gone a perfect 8-0 against the spread in their last 8-games as a home underdog.


NFL Betting System
Important fact when making your NFL picks; any home underdog of 6.0 or less with a total of 43.5 or more, that is playing in their regular season opener, versus an opponent that won 7 or more games in the previous season, has gone under the total in 25 of those 29-games (86.2%) since 1988.

NFL Pick: Bet Patriots/Dolphins to go under the total of 46.5 at 5Dimes

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