Bet 'Under' in Panthers vs. Ravens Week 4 Battle

Steven Suarez

Wednesday, September 24, 2014 3:09 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 24, 2014 3:09 PM UTC

The Panthers were humbled last week, and will be looking to bounce back on the road against the Ravens. This should be one of the most competitive games of the week, so let's see where we think the best value for our NFL picks is hiding.

As you'd expect, Baltimore is a favorite of three points on the NFL odds because of the home-field advantage. A couple books have a line of 3.5, but three seems to be the general consensus out there, and we wouldn't expect to see much of a shift.

Both defenses can hold strong on their day, so a low total of 40 points isn't all that surprising. The 'under' has gone 2-1 so far for both Baltimore and Carolina.

Baltimore Ravens in 2014-15 Regular Season: 2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS, +5.0 margin of victory

Injury Watch: Bernard Pierce (questionable), Terrell Suggs (questionable), Dennis Pitta (IR), Timmy Jernigan (questionable)

Carolina Panthers in 2014-15 Regular Season: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, +1.7 margin of victory

Injury Watch: DeAngelo Williams (questionable), Jonathan Stewart (questionable), Jerrico Cotchery (questionable), Greg Hardy (out), Thomas Davis (questionable)

After a hard-fought 23-16 loss Week 1 at home to Cincinnati, the Ravens have managed to respond by winning consecutive games over Pittsburgh (26-6) and Cleveland (23-21).

This past Sunday, Baltimore needed a field goal as time expired to top the Browns on the road. Justin Tucker connected from 32 yards out to give the Ravens a huge victory.

It wasn't the most productive of days for the offense. Joe Flacco was 19-of-31 for 217 yards and a touchdown, though he did throw a pick. He linked up well with Steve Smith, who had five catches or 101 yards. Kyle Juszczky caught the touchdown.

In the run game, Justin Forsett had 11 carries for 63 yards, but it was Lorenzo Taliaferro that made the biggest impact. He had 18 rushes for 91 yards and a touchdown, with his play drawing praise from head coach John Harbaugh.

The Ravens now meet up with a Carolina team that was beat up 37-19 at home on Sunday Night Football. The Panthers accounted for 349 total yards of offense, but allowed 454 yards in what was by far their worst showing of the young season.

Cam Newton was 24-of-35 for 250 yards and a touchdown, with Kelvin Benjamin racking up eight catches for 115 yards and a score and Greg Olsen chipping in with five receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown. However, Carolina mustered up only 42 total rushing yards in the loss. It obviously didn't help that they had to play from behind for most of the game, making the Panthers offense predictable in the process.

A positive response is needed from Carolina here in Week 4, but once again it's not going to be easy. Newton will have to be sharp, and that defense will have to be a lot more stout if the Panthers are to even stay close.


Suarez Says:
This should be a great game, and one that's likely to be decided on the last drive.

With so little separating these teams on the surface, we may have to head down the total route with our NFL picks. The 'under' looks like it could hold value.

There's a reason the number is as low as it is, considering Baltimore has only allowed a total of 27 points over the last two weeks, while we've seen what Carolina is capable of, the Week 3 setback aside. That Panthers defense can be downright dominant on its day.

Since we see little edge in an ATS play, let's go with the 'under' in this Week 4 battle in Baltimore.

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