Bet 'Under' Chiefs vs. Raiders Thursday Night NFL Picks

Jeff Grant

Thursday, November 20, 2014 1:12 PM GMT

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Oakland Raiders have both done a great job defending the red zone this season, which makes the ‘Under’ the clear pick on Thursday Night NFL odds.

Surging
Kansas City has put together a 5-0 SUATS record since its bye week, which is important to consider when making your Week 12 NFL picks, while the UNDER has cashed in four of five opportunities over that span. The Chiefs have surprised many by their defensive play since losing captain linebacker Derrick Johnson to a season-ending injury in Week 1, as they’ve surrendered 20 or fewer points in every game during their win streak. Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, with the UNDER going 6-3 in that situation.

 

A Real Black Hole
Oakland has dropped all 10 of its games in SU fashion thus far, but it has managed to alternate spread victories in its last four, including a 13-6 setback to the San Diego Chargers as 10.5-point road underdogs last week. The Raiders have done a tremendous job in providing protection for rookie signal-caller Derek Carr, which can’t be ignored when looking over the NFL odds, as the offensive line has allowed just 12 sacks in 2014.

It’s important to point out that the squad is 3-12 SU and 6-8-1 ATS in its last 15 games against AFC West opponents, with the UNDER cashing in nine of those opportunities.

Take a look at this cappers pick for today's Chiefs vs.Raiders

Getting After the Quarterback
The Chiefs have possessed one of the great pass rushes in the league since head coach Andy Reid took over last year, as they entered tied for third in the league with 30 sacks. Kansas City has the eighth best statistical defense heading into this rivalry matchup—giving up just 326.0 yards per game and not holding opposing quarterbacks to under 300 through the air in every contest.

 

Clamping Down
Both the Chiefs and Raiders have done a great job in limiting damage when opponents reach their 20-yard line, as they rank second and seventh respectively in allowing touchdowns on 41.9 and 50 percent of those drives. Oakland must avoid turning the football over in this critical area in hopes of potentially pulling off an upset or staying within this number, but it has given the ball up 20 times with a first-year player under center.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers play the total, as the UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in this series when played at the O.co Coliseum.

Free NFL PickUnder 43 at Bovada

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