Tennessee will travel to Denver to take on the Broncos on Sunday afternoon. The weather forecast is not pretty as an extreme arctic front has moved into Denver and game-time temperatures are expected to be 15-degrees or less with a chance of snow. Dating back to 1998, Peyton Manning is just 1-8 SU in games below 30 degrees.
“It is what it is,” Manning said when asked about the weather record. “We'll handle it just like another team has to.”
Tennessee is just 5-7 SU this season. But the Titans have been a competitive bunch and that has resulted in a 6-5-1 ATS mark. Six of the Titans seven losses this season have come by 9 points or less, and that is important to note since they are getting double digits in this game against the Broncos.
Despite losing three of their last four games on the scoreboard, Tennessee has won the battle on the field. The Titans out-yarded three of those four opponents by a significant margin; they won yardage by a combined 304 yards (1,135-831).
Read another cappers take here: NFL Picks: Titans vs. Broncos.
The Titans’ defense has been decent enough this season despite the losing record. They are giving up a respectable 22.2 points per game on just 326.6 yards of offense per game. Tennessee is holding opponents to just 5.2 yards per play (#14), including 4.1 yards per rush (#14) and 6.6 yards per pass attempt (#15). Those numbers have Tennessee right in the middle of the league, but they are being priced as a bottom feeder as a double digit underdog in this game.
Tennessee’s offense does a couple of things well enough to keep them in this game and keep Denver’s offense off the field. The Titans average 28.4 rushes per game while gaining 4.1 yards per rush attempt. They also covert 44.1% of their third down attempts which ranks them #6 in the NFL. The Titans can move the chains and control the clock which is a key ingredient to have when facing a potent offense.
Denver 10-2 SU and a solid 7-4-1 ATS even though the
pointspread has been inflated in the majority of their games. But this
game is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Broncos,
especially since they are laying a lot of points.
The Broncos played at San Diego, hosted Kansas City, played at New England, and then went to Kansas City last week. Now they host a non-conference game with another divisional game versus San Diego next week. This is the ultimate flat spot, sandwich game on Denver’s schedule and we expect them to simply go thru the motions.
Denver’s offensive acumen is well known so there’s no need to say how good they are. But their defense remains much maligned as they are giving up 26.4 points per game to offenses that only average 22.8 points per game. The Broncos have given up 62 points in their last two games. That’s a weak defensive profile for a double digit favorite, especially with bad weather forecasted.Tennessee does enough things right that will allow them to hang in this game. Denver’s defensive issues combined with the poor scheduling and situational spot along with Manning’s poor record in cold weather games makes taking the big points with the Titans the way to go in this game on Sunday afternoon.
Play TITANS (+).