Bet Titans -1 With Your Week 13 NFL Picks vs. Jaguars

Jason Lake

Tuesday, December 1, 2015 9:58 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2015 9:58 PM UTC

Just when it looked like the Jacksonville Jaguars were the fashionable NFL pick, here come the Tennessee Titans. Is it time for us to load up on Marcus Mariota?

Jason's 2015 record as of Dec. 1: 45-41-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 25-31 Total

Dang it, Jacksonville. We went through all that trouble to tell the world how much betting value you had as a rising commodity in the AFC South. Then you went and lost 31-25 to the San Diego Chargers (+5 away). Sure, it's only one game, and you're still profitable this year at 4-7 SU and 6-5 ATS, but c'mon. You're better than that.

Maybe we'll have to start looking elsewhere for our Week 13 NFL picks. Could this be the right time to start following the Tennessee Titans? Our first consensus reports of the week showed 95 percent of early bettors on the Titans for Sunday's matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) in Nashville. At press time, that support has calmed down to 57 percent, but Tennessee is still drawing 65 percent of the action as a 2.5-point chalk.


Titania, My Love
Forgive the mixed mythology, but here at the ranch, we've starting putting wax in our ears so we don't hear the siren song of the Titans (2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS). They keep teasing us with their potential betting value as a “buy low” team, then they fail to take the next step and improve their results. Ken Whisenhunt didn't pan out as a head coach. Jake Locker could never stay healthy at quarterback.

And Marcus Mariota? Our Offensive ROY pick isn't likely to cash in, but he has played quite well for a rookie. Football Outsiders has Mariota ranked No. 20 at his position in passing DVOA, just a shade below league-average at –4.2 percent. That's ahead of his Jacksonville counterpart, Blake Bortles (–7.0 percent, No. 23 overall), although that small gap disappears once you factor in Bortles' fleetness of foot. In terms of Total DYAR, Bortles is ahead at +186 to Mariota's +142.


Who Clocked Mr. Hurns?
If memory serves me right, it was just two weeks ago that the Jaguars beat the Titans 19-13 as 3-point home faves. However, it took a furious fourth-quarter comeback for Jacksonville to pull out the victory. And this week, the Jags probably won't have WR Allen Hurns (48 catches, seven TDs) at their disposal. Hurns is in concussion protocol after getting carted off the field in last week's loss to San Diego.

Let's also not forget the motivational power of revenge. Four of the five teams who were trying to atone last week for losses to division rivals ended up beating the NFL odds, with three of those teams winning outright. We're going to go ahead and recommend the Titans for Week 13, but not for anything more than a small wager. They're pulling in an average bet of $48 at press time, which seems like a very reasonable sizing for anyone but the highest rollers out there – provided you've got enough bankroll to begin with, of course.

NFL Pick: Take the Titans –1 (–125) at 5Dimes

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