Bet Surging Ravens +4 vs. Dolphins With Your Week 13 NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, December 2, 2015 8:26 PM GMT

Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2015 8:26 PM GMT

While neither of these AFC teams are likely to make the playoffs, there could still be value in some of these games heading into Week 13. The Ravens may have lost most of their best offensive players to injury, but could they still be a good value NFL pick this week on the road in Miami?

Ravens Down But Not Out
Despite losing Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett for the season a few weeks ago, the Ravens have won two straight games, and they could make it three in a row this week with Matt Schaub starting. While there are reports that the Ravens are working out Ryan Mallett, Schaub played fair enough last week in his first start to earn the job the rest of the way. Mallett would likely only serve as a backup in case of another quarterback injury, but going against the soft Dolphins’ defense might just bring out another good offensive performance.

The Ravens had a brilliant last second win over the Browns this past week. Or, you could say that the Browns had a patented defeat, as they had their last second field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown and the game as time expired. That win alone could be great momentum for the Ravens to finish out the season on a high note.

Miami has given up nearly 2800 passing yards this season, which ranks them in the bottom third of the league in that department. While Baltimore doesn’t have Steve Smith anymore this season, Kamar Aiken has been a nice surprise this season. The third year receiver has been targeted 38 times in the Ravens’ last four weeks, and he has scored in the Ravens’ last two wins. I expect him to have a big game against the Dolphins secondary.

 

The Sharp Pick
The NFL odds have the Ravens as +4 underdogs in this one, with a total of 43 ½. While I am intrigued by the total because of how little either one of these teams plays defense, the Ravens are the play here ATS. The road game will be offset by the nice Miami weather in December, and I see the Ravens thriving in it, maybe even more so than they thrived last week against the Browns’ defense.

The Dolphins are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games this season, and they are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five meetings with the Ravens dating back to 2008. After opening the season at 1-6 ATS, the Ravens have covered two in a row. Maybe it took them hitting rock bottom in order to bounce back up again, and if that’s truly the case with the Ravens, I expect them to cover here, and some down the stretch as well. While this game is by far their easiest one remaining, they could be undervalued like they are here in future situations as well.

Miami ranks 27th in overall defense this season, and with the Baltimore defense starting to look better, I expect the Dolphins to run right into the Ravens’ hands in this one. Miami has stated they want to run the ball more after running just nine times for 12 yards last week against the Jets. However, it’s the Dolphins’ run defense that has me concerned, as they have averaged giving up over 150 yards on the ground in their last two losses, where they also gave up 24 and 38 points. Take the points with the Ravens with your NFL picks here.

NFL Picks: Ravens +4 at 5Dimes

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