Bet Steelers ATS vs. Titans for Monday Night Football Picks

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, November 12, 2014 2:13 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2014 2:13 PM UTC

Pittsburgh Steelers look to right the ship when they take on the beatable Tennessee Titans in week 11 NFL betting. NFL odds are in full swing, so join us as we preview this AFC showdown and deliver our NFL betting verdict along with our select NFL pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers Must Win
So, the Pittsburgh Steelers were a flop last week. Laid an egg in a 20-13 defeat to the New York Jets that NFL bettors are still wiping off the slate today. Does that mean they should nest on a mere 5.5-point spread in week 11 NFL betting markets though, a game that features the clueless Tennessee Titans no less. To put it into mathematical context: if home field advantage yields three points, this NFL line suggest the Steelers are barely three points better than the Titans. Are you kidding?

In fact, the NFL odds board, still hot off the press, had the Steelers matched as the 4-point road chalk (so only a point better initially than the Titans in theory). Understandably, the NFL betting public has been all over the Steelers since early doors at this too-good-to-miss price (70% plus bets have gone towards the Steelers in this game).

The Steelers slipped up last week when they faced off against the New York Jets. Perhaps, they took their opponents for granted, after all the Jets were riding an eight-game losing streak, desperate to buy a win no matter how hard they tried. Perhaps, the Steelers were spent after    three straight home wins in which they outscored and outmuscled opponents 124-to-80 all while Big Ben accounted for 14 touchdowns (twice depositing 6-touchdown accounts). Allowances should be made for those accomplishments perhaps. Or, perhaps, credit should be given where it's due: the Jets rose to the occasion and played up to their opponents.There's a novel idea.

In any event, whatever analogy NFL bettors want to cling to for week 10's debacle in New York, there can't possibly be such disillusionment on the sports betting floor to warrant such a nominal point-spread. Heck, the Texans hovered around 3-points in week 8 only to easily lay the points in a 30-16 win in Tennessee.

Fact is the Steelers need to win this game if they hope to make a playoff run this season. The Titans are supremely beatable, as evinced by their 2-7 SU record on the season, which includes a 1-3 SU record at home.

Overall, the Tennessee Titans have been outscored 144-to-223 this season for a 79-point differential or, in other words, 8.8-point defeat margin per game. By the numbers it gets worse at closer inspection. Titans have lost the last three in a row, outscored 70-to-40 which yields a 10-point margin of defeat over that span. And their last home affair saw them succumb to the Houston Texans 30-16, a defeat that saw them extend their poor ATS record to 0-3-1 on the season with an average margin of defeat at 7.2-points.


NFL Betting Verdict
Whichever way you slice this matchup, the Steelers emerge as the value NFL pick on the ludicrously low 5.5-point spread. Nothing about the Titans' current form or record on the season suggests they are bankable or about to keep this game close, never mind being on the verge of a momentous upset.

Sure, winning on the road has it's challenges. The disheartening loss to the Jets in week 10 NFL betting is case-and-point. But, surely, we can all agree the Jets are a better team on paper than the Titans are this season. That's the difference between week 10 and week 11 betting on the Steelers, and why this point-spread makes absolutely no sense to us.

The setback last week proved costly as the Steelers slipped to third place in a highly competitive AFC North division that is tightly packed with all four teams above .500. It's going to be neck-and-neck at this rate down the stretch, the business end of the NFL betting season. Big Ben and the Steelers know what is at stake here better than anybody else. The idea that Big Ben is going to lose to Zach Mettenberger on Monday Night, primetime football beggars belief. So does the idea the the lesser quarterback would give the Steelers a run for their money. Take the Steelers at 5.5-points on your NFL picks and watch if they don't blow this game off the NFL odds board with a double-digit victory.

NFL Picks: Steelers -5.5 at The Greek

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