Bet Steelers -3 to Steamroll Chiefs for Week 16 NFL picks

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, December 19, 2014 5:54 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 19, 2014 5:54 PM UTC

Join us as we take a closer look at the perception and reality for this Sunday's matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers for your Week 16 NFL picks.


Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) 1:00 PM EST
Each week in the Point Spread Prognosis, I isolate an NFL game as the STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK. For the year to date, this selection is 11-4 ATS. It enters this week on an 8-1 ATS run. The basis of the selection is to use a team who will dominate the opposition at the point of attack. We know from research that teams who outrush their opponent by 30 or more yards are a better than 70% ATS proposition. Furthermore, we know that teams who rush for 30 or more times in a game, if their opponent does not, are an over 80% proposition. Conversely, we know that any team who runs the ball for 22 or less times a game, if their opponent does not, is an over 80% play against. With those NFL odds factors in mind, let’s consider the current rushing form of these two teams as a key component in today’s selection.

Chiefs saved their season last week with a 31-13 home field victory against Oakland, outgaining the Raiders 388-280. But it has again been a dismal second half of the season for the Chiefs, who much like last year began the season 8-1 ATS, but have since lost five consecutive games to the spread, going 2-3 SU in that time frame. They now trail in the wild card race by one game. Look no further than a defensive front, who in the last five weeks has allowed 163/5.0 overland. All that keeps us from taking off the rubber band is the fact that under HC Reid, a perennially great road coach, the Chiefs have gone 12-3 ATS on the regular season road, winning those games by an average of 7 PPG.

That defensive ineptitude should be to the Steelers’ liking, as behind the offensive thrusts of RB Bell the Steelers have averaged 173/4.9 overland the last four weeks. The 27-20 victory at Atlanta last week now has the Steelers clinging to the fifth spot in the AFC playoff queue. Offsetting the Chiefs’ road ability is a Steelers team whose offense has emerged at home behind a jelling OL, the experience of QB Roethlisberger, and a group of young receivers who are quickly getting on the same page with Big Ben. Note that Pittsburgh has averaged 39 PPG in their last four home games. Good enough to make them the choice in this encounter, against a fading KC team.

There are a lot of reasons to like the Steelers today and making them your NFL pick, as outlined above. Not the least of them is these team’s respective performance, offensively and defensively, at the point of attack. No surprise to this bureau if the Steelers use the combination of their home field, late season momentum, and a solid running game to emerge with a comfortable double digit victory today.

Free NFL Picks: Take Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at BetOnline

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