Bet Seahawks in Monday Night's NFC Battle vs. Redskins

Kevin Stott

Thursday, October 2, 2014 3:30 PM GMT

The Super Bowl champ Seattle Seahawks head east for an interdivisional NFC meeting with the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football and a couple of very solid trends back betting the favorites here.

Odds Overview
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins (-7, 45, BetVictor), Monday, (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT: FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland is the site of this Monday Night Football matchup between the host Washington Redskins (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) and the visiting Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS), a team which heads in with the luxury of having an added week’s rest after enjoying an Open Date in Week 4. The Redskins (3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS in 2013) are coming in off of a humiliating 45-14 loss to their NFC East counterpart New York Giants here at home as 3-point favorites, so, you know with starting QB Robert Griffin III (ankle) out for the season and the Redskins defense allowing 82 points over its last two games, that it won’t be long until the home crowd starts to really turn on this team if they continue to play like this. And there’s not too much first-year coach Jay Gruden can do about it all right now except maybe to just duck and cover. Especially with one of the most fearsome NFL teams in ages paying a visit to town and not bringing cookies or even a spare defender or two to loan Washington.

Oddsmakers have made Seattle more-than-gracious 7-point favorites (BetVictor) with the Total (Points) being set at 45 on the NFL odds board. In the Money Line (Winner) marketplace, the Seahawks are healthy -350 favorites over the Redskins (+270) and with Seattle being the type of team that only loses to good teams, taking them on the Money Line and starting and open-ended parlay for the week is a pretty good idea. The NFL is really a hard league to beat as a sports gambler, but this is a really good spot to try to make some money backing machine-like Seattle on what many know to be a crappy playing surface at FedEx Field.

 

Washington Redskins
With Griffin gone for the season, the Redskins have gone to Kirk Cousins (934 passing yards 6 TDs, 5 INTs) at QB and the Michigan State graduate has done what he can given the situation he’s in right now. Washington doesn’t exactly have a bunch of fantastic skill position guys to work with but RB Alfred Morris (71 rushes, 316 yards, 3 TDs) and TE Niles Paul (21 catches, 313 yards, TD) are doing what they can to help. And, despite the 82 points allowed the last two weeks, the Redskins defense is ranked #8 against the Rush (87.0 ypg) and #13 against the Pass (237.2 ypg). So you ask, “How does that happen?” Simple. A 17-6 Week 1 loss against the Texans in a game with no offense followed by a 41-10 Washington pasting of the Jaguars, one of the worst teams in the league.  So, for now at least, the Redskins (defensive) rankings are pretty deceiving and its defense should be put to the test by Seattle here.

On the injury front, besides Griffin, Washington has two DTs on the I-R List (Jessie Williams and D’Anthony Smith) as well as CB DeAngelo Hall (Achilles) and the Redskins had LB Akeem Jordan (knee), TE Jordan Reed (hamstring), DEs Kedric Golston (groin) and Jarvis Jenkins (ribs), G Shan Lauvao (knee), T Trent Williams (knee) and TE Paul (concussion) all listed as Questionable on Wednesday for Monday night’s game. So, Washington is definitely more banged up than is Seattle heading in here.

The Redskins (Team Total Points 18½, SkyBet) have played three straight Overs heading into MNF and were 2-4 ATS as Home Underdogs last NFL season. But Seattle’s stingy defense should dictate what happens in this game and both the Total and Washington’s Team Total Points prop will be affected by this Seahawks unit’s strength, depth and swagger and it may be hard for the host Redskins to get 17 points, let alone the 19 they would need to go Over their Team Total (18½). This game will be all about the defending Super Bowl champions.

 

Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks (7-1 ATS on Monday Night Football), and QB Russell Wilson (60 completions, 651 yards, 6 TDs) are a team now built to run the ball (#3 in NFL in Rushing Yards with an average of 148.0 ypg) while stopping their opponents from rushing the ball (#5 against the Rush, 72.3 ypg). Simply, Seattle rushes for twice as many yards as it allows its’ opponents, which means this Pete Carroll-coached (46-27-1 ATS) team knows how to try to control the clock, and thus the game. And balancing out the defenses contribution to this gridiron yin and yang, is RB Marshawn Lynch (52 rushes, 234 yards, 3 TDs), who, along with QB Wilson (12-7 ATS Away), is always a threat to get a chunk of yards every time he runs the pigskin. The Seahawks could use a little bit better production from WRs Percy Harvin (15 receptions, 106 yards) and Doug Baldwin (10 catches, 105 yards), both of whom are without a TD a quarter into the new season so maybe look for Seattle and Wilson to try to target Harvin and Baldwin, making them ideal candidates for an Anytime TD Scorer prop bet.

Injuries to the Seahawks (Team Total Points 26½, SkyBet) are minimal, with TE Zach Miller’s (ankle)—he had surgery this week—absence a small issue while RB Christine Michael (hamstring), CB Tharold Simon (knee) and LB Bruce Irvin (ribs) were all listed as Questionable.

These two teams last met in the NFC Playoffs in the 2012 season where Seattle defeated the Redskins 24-14 here in Landover as 3-point favorites. And a similar scoreline here in this one would surprise nobody.

 

Best Betting Approaches
The simple approach here is to simply back the better team with your NFL pick, the one with the week’s rest and with the better quarterback and coach and defense, and just lay the 7 points although it’s always hard to bet against a home underdog on Monday Night Football—as the Chiefs proved in Week 4, thrashing the Patriots in Kansas City. By game-time on Monday, this line could rise above 7, so best to either shop around and buy now or be prepared to possibly by a ½ point although this could very well go to -8. Many trends support backing Seattle here, including a 6-2 ATS as a Road Favorite last season and QB Wilson’s mind-boggling 20-6 ATS vs. Non-Division opponents. And with Carroll’s impressive ATS mark (46-27-1) and his team’s incredible 7-1 ATS mark on Mondays, best to back the Seahawks here and lay the TD in what could end up being a road blowout by night’s end in a game between the defending NFL champions and the worst team in the NFC East. The Seahawks Lead At End of Every Quarter +150 (bet365) prop bet is also worth a look here as if the visitors can score first and grab ahold of a first quarter lead, they will expect their defense and rushing game to set the tone the rest of the way and then try to show off for the national TV audience. And they can.

NFL Pick: Seahawks -7 at BookMaker

NFL Prop Pick: Seahawks Lead At End of Every Quarter +150 (bet365)

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