Bet Saints -5.5 vs. Rams in NFL Week 15

David Lawrence

Wednesday, December 11, 2013 7:46 PM GMT

The New Orleans Saints retook control of the NFC South and the No. 2 seed in the conference last week by taking care of business against the Carolina Panthers. However, The Saints will have a rematch with Carolina next week, so they better not look too far ahead. They have a manageable opponent this week as they visit the St. Louis Rams but they better be focused.

New Orleans Saints vs. St. Louis Rams

Odds: Saints -5.5

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The New Orleans Saints can win because…

The Rams pass defense is one of the weakest units in the NFL. St. Louis allows 8.4 yards per pass attempt, which is the second-worst average in the league. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging a quarterback rating of 97.2 (27th in the NFL) and completing 68.5% of their passes (worst in the NFL) against them. What’s scary is that the Rams actually generate quite a bit of pressure as they have 38 sacks on the year (seventh-most). So their numbers are awful and that’s when they pressure the quarterback – what’s going to happen if they get stuffed?

In any case, it’s all bad news considering Drew Brees and company are coming to town.

The Rams have lost five of seven and they only have five wins on the year. Their last four came against Jacksonville, Houston, a struggling Indianapolis Colts team and the Chicago Bears. The Saints are one of the best teams in the NFL. Add them to your NFL picks as this is simply a mismatch.

The St. Louis Rams can win because…

They’ve been very competitive at home this season. Although the Rams were blown out once at home – in Week 4 by the San Francisco 49ers – they nearly upended the Seattle Seahawks in a 14-9 loss and only lost by seven to the Tennessee Titans. They’ve won their other three home games.

One thing we know about the Rams is that they are going to bring their tough, physical brand of defense. The Saints haven’t responded so well to that type of physicality in a couple of their road trips this season, most notably in Seattle and in New York against the Jets. If St. Louis can harass Drew Brees and disrupt the timing of the Saints offense, they’ll have a shot to be in this game and cover the NFL odds.

Keep in mind that the Saints have only covered a spread this big on the road once this season (an eight-point win in Chicago) and are 1-5 ATS on the road. They won by two in Tampa Bay and by four in Atlanta just a few weeks ago. That should give you pause before laying 5.5 with the Saints.

Also make sure to check out our:

NFL Week 15 Picks

NFL Picks: Week 15 Betting Odds Report

Outlook & NFL Football Betting Prediction:

This is a really bad matchup for St. Louis. They are a shorthanded offense right now who is handcuffed with a backup quarterback, an unreliable receiving corps and a running game that does its best. There’s no one area where the Rams can consistently lean on. That spells trouble with the Saints in town as they are a high-flying, explosive offense. If they can get ahead by 10 or 14 points, the Rams simply won’t have the tools to come from behind.

The Saints have three losses on the year but they came in New England, in New York and in Seattle. All three of those road games were outdoors. In the cozy confines of the Edward Jones Dome, add the Saints to your sports picks as they should roll.

NFL Picks: Saints -5.5 at Bookmaker