Bet Roat Dog Chargers vs. Chiefs for Week 17 NFL Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, December 26, 2014 3:36 PM GMT

Make sure to check out this article which previews our NFL picks for Underdog of the Week as the San Diego Chargers meet with the Kansas City Chiefs with hopes of keeping their playoff hopes alive. 

San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3) 1:00 PM EST
Each week in the Pointspread Prognosis, I isolate an underdog who I believe has solid potential to win the game outright. The reasons may be based on statistical data, a positive situation, or strong technical factors. Today’s game, featuring the San Diego Chargers, features a bit of all three.  The Chiefs have fallen on hard times while San Diego is super surging to the playoffs. In fact, San Diego holds their playoff destiny in their own hands. A win today puts them in the playoffs. In addition, a tie, combined with a Baltimore loss or tie, also punches San Diego’s Playoff ticket. The scenario for KC’s playoff hopes is far less probable.  For the Chiefs to make it to the playoffs, they must win this game combined with a Baltimore loss and a Houston loss (each Baltimore and Houston are double digit NFL odds favorites on their home field).

Much like last season, Kansas City is spitting the bit in the second half of the season. Kansas City enters today at 8-7 SU, but on a 1-4 SU, 0-6 ATS slide. Now they are relegated to the role of spoiler against the hungry San Diego team.  But the Chiefs are just 3-12 ATS as division favorite of late and 3-11 ATS as a home favorite following a defeat. Entering last week, the Chiefs had allowed 163/5.0 overland in their previous 5 games. Though the Steelers did not show that type of dominance, Pittsburgh still recorded a 20-12 victory.

San Diego is clearly at the other end of the spectrum. The streaky Charger team halted a 1-8 ATS slide with a 38-35 win at San Francisco Saturday night. In that game, the Chargers trailed by 21 points before authoring a 3 TD comeback. Last year, the Chargers had to win their final four games of the season to get to the promised playoff land. This year, once again in week 17, it is win and in. Last week, the Chargers were badly mauled at the point of attack, being outrushed 355-98 by the 49ers. But in the ebb and flow of the NFL, it is not unusual for such statistical events to result in a reversal the following week. For your NFL picks this weekened, keep in mind that the momentum of that victory combined with the negative vibes of KC figure to extend the Chargers’ recent record in this role to 15-8 and 10-3 ATS as road dog.

Free NFL Picks: Take San Diego Chargers +3 at 5Dimes

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