Bet Road Dog Ravens Over Colts for Week 5 NFL Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 2, 2014 9:30 PM GMT

Following opening week's loss, the Baltimore Ravens are looking to extend their winning streak to 4-0 ATS as they travel to face the Indianapolis Colts for Week 5 NFL. This underdog packs a strong bite at +3 on NFL odds. Let's breakdown why we like them for your NFL picks.

UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK
Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts 1:00 PM ET
Just two years removed from their Super Bowl Championship against San Francisco, the Baltimore Ravens appear to have it back on track again.  A letdown often occurs for champions of the NFL.  Just such was the case with Baltimore, whose fortunes dipped to 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS in 2013.  Look no further than a running attack which ground to a virtual halt at 83/3.1 last season.  Now, the black birds are bouncing back behind their rebuilt offensive line which clearly needed a year of seasoning. 

For Indianapolis, they have hardly missed a beat when they hired QB Andrew Luck to replace the departed Manning.  In 2 years of the HC Pagano regime, Indy is 23-12 SU, 22-13 ATS behind QB Luck.  This, despite the fact, that in those two seasons they have been outrushed by an average of 135/4.9 to 106/4.1.

After a shaky 0-2 SU start against quality teams, Denver and Philly, the Colts did what they do best in beating weak links, Jacksonville (44-17) and Tennessee (41-17).  In last week’s win vs. the Titans, Indy amassed a 498-261 yardage edge.  That profile fits nicely with the dichotomy presented during the Pagano/Luck tenure.  While Indy has dominated inferior opposition in this timeframe, the Colts are only 6-8 SU ATS when facing .600 or better foes.  Fitting with these tendencies of the home standing Colts is the Ravens’ tendency in the QB Flacco era to play their best, 31-16 ATS, in non-division games against winning opposition.  The 3 game win streak of the Ravens is far more impressive.  Following an opening week loss to the undefeated Bengals, Baltimore has bounced for a 3-0 SU ATS run against Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Carolina.  In last week’s victory vs. the Panthers (38-10), the Ravens had an edge of 127-67 overland.  Now, the Ravens are outrushing foes by an average of 134/4.5 to 84/3.4.  With a defense that is allowing just 15 PPG, the lowest number in the league, you can see why I am enamored about today’s prospects.  Throw in the fact that Baltimore is 8-3 ATS recently as underdog for a measure of confidence in what is quickly becoming a bounce back season for the Birds. 

In summation, when chosing your NFL picks keep in mind we have a team who has played the more difficult schedule, has the better defense and the better running game in the role of underdog.  This makes it your best chance for an outright upset on today’s card.

Free NFL Pick: Baltimore at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290626, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]