Bet Road Dog Jets ATS vs. Chiefs for NFL Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 31, 2014 6:10 PM GMT

Join us as we preview this week's Perception/Reality game between the New York Jets and the Kansas City Chiefs complete with our free NFL picks.

Each week, the PERCEPTION/REALITY GAME looks to isolate a team that has fallen out of favor with the public against a team who has caught the attention of both the linemaker and betting public.  The line rises on the team who is getting the love, allowing us the opportunity to step in with the underdog.  When last we left our NFL PERCEPTION/REALITY plays, Washington was winning outright over Dallas (20-17) on Monday Night Football

Sunday afternoon, we travel to Kansas City for the Jets meeting with the Chiefs.  For the YTD, the Jets are 1-7 SU, 2-5 ATS, failing to cover the number by a net of 46 points.  The Fly Boys have lost 7 consecutive games.  Included in those defeats is a 43-23 home loss to Buffalo.  More on that game in a moment!  They will face a KC team who has now won consecutive games to move to 4-3 SU for the season, 6-1 ATS covering by a net margin of +67 points.  That net 113 combined AFP differential is what has sky rocketed this line to double digit favoritism for KC.  It is time to step in with the value. 

KC is clearly on a roll.  They have a cover at Denver, in a game they could have stolen in the late going, a cover at San Francisco in a tightly contested contest and an outright win at San Diego, who was on a 5-game winning streak when they met the Chiefs.  The previous 2 home outings for KC have seen them defeat New England (41-14) and beat St. Louis last week as our STEAMROLLER (34-7).  In that game, they dominated overland, 143-84.  Their statistical profile reinforces the success. They are now outrushing foes 138/4.4 to 113/4.7.  With an 18 point per game defense that is allowing just 309 YPG, they appear to be the real deal.  Yet, they have never succeeded well in this role, standing 3-12 ATS as home favorite of late.  Now, they must face a Jets’ team for whom they have little respect. 

That would be a mistake.  For as horrible as the Jets have been in the won/loss column, is as solid as they have been in the running game. No team in the NFL shows greater overland dominance as do these Jets.  From all the statistical research done by this bureau, should these numbers continue, it will lead to 2nd half of the season ATS success.  For the year, the Jets are averaging 30/140/4.7 overland, while their defense is holding foes to just 85/3.3.  Last week, in the 43-23 home loss to Buffalo, the Jets outrushed the Bills 175-67.  Look no further than the TO column for the New Yorkers’ problems this season.  Last week, they were a -6 net TOs in their game with Buffalo.  A deficit an NFL team will rarely overcome.  That lifted the Jets’ net TO margin to -15, which is 5 worse than any other team (Jax).  Eventually, TOs lead to a turnaround, making us feel good about this selection.  In one of the most interesting side lights of this game, QB Vick has been named the starter for the Jets against KC HC Reid, the mentor who resurrected his career, while each were with the Eagles. 

In a contest which is an easy knee-jerk to the KC Chiefs for the public, we step in with the value with the Fly Boys, who will do a better job of taking care of the football, shutdown the Chiefs’ running game, and succeed with some running success themselves.  Plus the double digit NFL odds, a value NFL Pick!

Free NFL picks: Jets +10.5 at 5Dimes

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