Bet Redskins -7 Over Buccaneers: NFL Picks Week 11

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 11, 2014 4:50 PM GMT

Nothing much is going right for Washington these days, but at least Robert Griffin III is back. And he’s got a cupcake team coming to town in Week 11, with Tampa Bay getting seven points on the NFL odds board.

Jason’s record after Week 9: 26-36 ATS, 10-14-1 Totals

Profit: minus-34.81 units

Has any quarterback seen his career go up and down as quickly as Robert Griffin III? He made the Pro Bowl as a rookie in 2012 after putting up one of the most impressive seasons of any QB ever: 27 combined touchdowns, five picks, 6.8 yards per carry and a 102.4 passer rating. But it’s been a mess of injuries and off-field distractions ever since. Those sandwich ads aren’t helping his profile, either.

It’s probably too late for Griffin to save Washington (3-6 SU and ATS) from missing the playoffs. Then again, think back to 2012, when Washington was 3-6 going into the bye week before rattling off seven straight victories and winning the NFC East. It could happen again. And it all starts this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers come to town. The Week 11 NFL Odds have Tampa getting the full seven points after opening at +6.

 

Mulligan Stew
We’ve only seen limited glimpses of Griffin this season, and he’s lost both his starts, to the Houston Texans (–3 at home) in Week 1 and the Minnesota Vikings (+1 at home) in Week 9. However, if you’re a Washington fan, you have to be at least somewhat encouraged by what you saw against the Vikings. Griffin still wasn’t in 2012 form, posting minus-21 Total DYAR, but he made some good plays along the way.

There won’t be any more mulligans from here on in, though. Washington almost certainly has to win out to make the playoffs, and with only the No. 31-ranked strength of schedule remaining, it ain’t over yet, folks. But it will be if Washington doesn’t afford Griffin a little more protection. He got sacked five times by the Vikings, who led the league with 30 sacks after Week 9.

 

No, I’m Not the Mike
The Buccaneers (1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS) are not the Minnesota Vikings. They had 13 sacks total going into Week 10, and they only got to Matt Ryan once in last Sunday’s 27-17 loss to the Atlanta Falcons (–3.5 at home) despite Atlanta’s decimated offensive line. Washington’s line ranks No. 27 in pass protection, and LT Trent Williams is clearly not playing at 100 percent, but if Atlanta can hold up against the Buccaneers, Griffin should be able to sleep soundly this week.

Meanwhile, what the heck is going on with the quarterback situation in Tampa? We made a little bit of money earlier this year when Mike Glennon (83.3 passer rating) took over the starting gig from Josh McCown (71.2 rating), but at the Georgia Dome, McCown was back in the saddle, and while he threw for 301 yards, McCown also threw two picks. Tampa Bay is 3-2 ATS this year with Glennon and 0-4 ATS behind McCown.

Obviously Lovie Smith is comfortable with his former back-up QB from Chicago. But we’re more comfortable with new Washington coach Jay Gruden getting a chance to weave his magic with Griffin. The rookie NFL coach and former Arena League MVP quarterback has already earned praise for his work in what can only be described as difficult circumstances in D.C. Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy both had their moments filling in for Griffin. Now let’s see what the first unit can do. All they need is a little more time – and more opponents like Tampa Bay.

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The Five Stars
At face value, there's a lot to recommend both sides, here the highlights and NFL Pick for this game. 

Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: WAS
Defense/Special Teams: WAS
Coaching: WAS
Market Bias: TB
Betting Line Value: TB
Verdict: 1-star pick on WAS

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on Washington –7 (+102) at Pinnacle

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