Bet Ravens to Steamroll Over Browns for Week 17 NFL Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, December 27, 2014 3:45 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 27, 2014 3:45 PM UTC

Don't miss out as we preview this week's NFL picks for Steamroller of the Week as the Cleveland Browns travel to face the Baltimore Ravens for week 17 NFL betting. 

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens (-10) 1:00 PM EST
Each week in the Point Spread Prognosis Newsletter, I isolate an NFL team who will dominate their opposition at the point of attack. We know from statistical research that any team who outrushes their foe by 30 or more yards in a game has an over 70% chance to beat the pointspread. In a similar way, we know that any team who runs the ball 30 times in a game while their opponent does not has an over 80% chance to cover the pointspread. Finally, if one team runs the ball 22 or less times in a game while the other does not, they are an over 80% ATS play against. When the dust clears this afternoon in Baltimore, expect the Ravens to have recorded this double digit NFL odds victory on the basis of their strong numbers at the point of attack.

It was just four short weeks ago that these two teams were tied in the division in what was then a four team race. But their lack of experience, poor rush defense, and deplorable signal caller play have negatively separated the Browns from the division pack. Baltimore clings to slim hopes of making the playoffs, as they need a victory today combined with a San Diego loss at Kansas City.

It sure looks like the Browns have tossed the towel. In losing four straight games, Cleveland has managed only 47 points. With QB Manziel as the starter the last two weeks, the Browns have been outgained 751-335. In last week’s loss at Carolina, Cleveland was outrushed 209-84 and outgained 404-228. QB Manziel injured his hamstring in that contest, allowing former starter QB Hoyer to again take controls. It may not matter who plays QB today, as the Cleveland rush defense is now allowing 141 RYPG.

As stated above, Baltimore playoff hopes rest on this victory with a San Diego loss in the same time frame at Kanas City. Baltimore is in this predicament because of their shocking 25-13 loss last week at Houston, when they were outrushed 123-33. A trio of Baltimore INTs greased the slide for that loss. That performance was uncharacteristic of Baltimore, who entered that game averaging 132/4.6 overland. But the Ravens have played far better on their home field, where their five home wins have come by 20, 28, 22, 14, and 8 points. In addition, Baltimore is 6-0 SU ATS at home following a defeat. For your NFL picks this weekened, keep in mind that with those victories coming by an average of 13 PPG, Baltimore will not take Cleveland lightly. Remember they needed last play magic to win 23-21 at Cleveland earlier in the season. 

Free NFL Picks: Take Baltimore Ravens -10 at 5Dimes

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