Bet Rams ATS Over 49ers for Monday Night Football Picks

Jason Lake

Thursday, October 9, 2014 6:37 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 9, 2014 6:37 PM UTC

The St. Louis Rams have only covered one of their four games this season – depending on the NFL odds at the time you bought your tickets. Smart shopping could be the difference again this Monday against the San Francisco 49ers.

Jason’s record after Week 5: 19-16 ATS, 5-7-1 Totals
Profit: plus-0.1 units

Were you gritting your teeth last Sunday when the St. Louis Rams were mounting that late comeback attempt against the Philadelphia Eagles? That depends on which side you were betting, of course, but when did you place your bet? The Rams were available at +6.5 Sunday morning before steaming all the way to +3.5 at the official close. They ended up losing 34-28. If you played the middle, congratulations: You won both showcases.

Judicious line shopping could be even more important this week with the Rams hosting the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football (8:30 pm. ET, ESPN). In this case, St. Louis opened as a 4-point home dog before moving to +3 (+105) in response to early action. Will there be a protracted late run on the Rams this time? If so, that spread is very likely to move back off the magic number three, making the Niners a much more enticing option against the NFL odds.

St. Louis Steamer
So where did last week’s run on St. Louis come from, anyway? We’d like to think it’s because we had the Rams on our Sunday betting ticket, and the millions (and millions~!) of our readers followed suit. But let’s be reasonable here: The Rams are dead last on the public money charts, while Philadelphia is in the Top 5.

Maybe the sharps just wanted to make sure Austin Davis (96.8 passer rating) was getting the start for St. Louis. Davis has been so impressive that Shaun Hill (85.3 career passer rating) was left on the sidelines last week, even though he’s presumably healthy and took some first-team reps during practice. It looks like Davis will start again this week against San Francisco; the sharps, or at least some of them, have already made their early bets on St. Louis.

The Niners (3-2 SU and ATS) are ninth in public money, so if you weren’t able to get the Rams (officially 1-3 SU and ATS) at more than a field goal, you might get another shot at it before kick-off. Casual bettors will have the extra day to open up their wallets for the Monday night game, which is still a popular broadcast despite moving to cable and losing the very best matchups of the week to NBC. Besides, wrestling on Mondays hasn’t been a thing for a decade now. Sigh.

How About a Pair of Tan Pants?
The Niners might not be public darlings much longer, either. It’s pretty clear that head coach Jim Harbaugh’s time in San Fran is just about up – he’s been rumored as the next coach of his alma mater, the Michigan Wolverines. It might seem like a step back for Harbaugh considering how much money he can make in the NFL, but money can’t buy happiness, and Harbaugh sure seemed happy when he was leading Andrew Luck and the Stanford Cardinal to victory in the Orange Bowl.

If it hadn’t been for Harbaugh, the Niners might still be at the bottom of the NFC West instead of St. Louis. But they might end up there anyway if they’re not careful. San Francisco is coming off a pair of close shaves at home against the Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs, barely beating the spread in both games. There are too many injuries on this team to ignore, including on the offensive line, where RT Anthony Davis is likely out with a sprained MCL. Jonathan Martin has been filling that spot, and you probably remember what happened to him in Miami. Just sayin’.

The Five Stars
Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: STL
Defense/Special Teams: SF

Coaching: SF
Market Bias: STL
Betting Line Value: STL

Verdict: 1-star pick on STL

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Rams +3.5 at The Greek

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