Bet Raiders ATS vs. Chargers for Week 11 NFL

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, November 15, 2014 6:09 PM GMT

Saturday, Nov. 15, 2014 6:09 PM GMT

Impossible to play this team!? Maybe not! Read Joe's winning game

Each week in this missive, I look to isolate an NFL team that presents the best opportunity for an underdog ATS winner. When using a winning team, I will often point out statistical evidence which will point to their potential fundamental dominance. There is another category of underdog which are highly profitable NFL odds. That comes in the area of situational handicapping. This may entail a bounce back or letdown scenario, or be backed by technical evidence which supports the winning underdog side. This game is from a scenario that represents that latter type of NFL handicapping.

San Diego 
The Chargers bolted from the gate at 5-1 SU ATS. Though it did include a home victory against  the Seeahawks, their next four victims were the likes of Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Jets, and this Oakland team against whom they needed a late comeback for a 31-28 victory. It was in that game that it became evident that multiple injuries on both the offense and defensive side of the ball were impeding their progress. Since that time, the Chargers have gone 0-3 SU ATS, losing on this field to KC by 3, then getting blown out by 14 at Denver, before being shutout 37-0 at Miami. Though RB Matthews may return to aid an infantry attack, which is averaging just 82/3.1, there are still injury concerns to the defense, which has allowed 31 PPG in the losing streak. Lest you think the bounce back from a 37-0 shutout is automatic, consider that teams have recently covered just 2 of 7 after posting a goose egg. With the Chargers just 5-8 ATS as a favorite of 7+ points in divisional contests, the setting is ripe for them to fail once again.

Don't miss all the action on this and all this week11 games, visit SBR's NFL picks for updates and our best hadicappers pic of the day.

 

Last week
The Raiders got pummeled on their home field by Denver. In the 41-17 defeat, they were outrushed 118-30 and outgained 471-222. They remain the only winless team in the NFL. Oakland is now on long term slides of 0-15 SU, 5-10 ATS, being outscored 31-18 in that time frame. History says they succeed at this site, as they sport an 8-3 ATS series record, including 5-1 ATS at this site. It is tough to play this team as injuries are mounting on both the OL and defense. Look no further than the fact they have the worst offense in the NFL, averaging just 16 PPG and 281 YPG for 4.8 OFF YP play. That is supported by the fact that the NFL’s worst ground game is averaging just 18/62/3.3.

Impossible to play this team? Maybe not!  Considering their series history, the Chargers’ cold streak, and the fact that game 8+ winless road teams are 17-3 ATS (85%).

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