Bet Patriots ATS vs. Jets for Week 7 NFL Picks

Jason Lake

Wednesday, October 15, 2014 2:16 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2014 2:16 PM UTC

There’s one player who represents everything that’s wrong with the New York Jets. It’s Darrelle Revis, whom they’ll face Thursday night when they visit the New England Patriots as 9.5-point underdogs on the NFL odds board.

Jason’s Record After Week 6: 21-22 ATS, 5-10-1 Totals

Profit: minus-13.99 units


Rex Ryan has been clinging to his head coaching job with the New York Jets for a while now. His team hasn’t had a winning season since 2010, and the list of quarterbacks who have come and gone during his tenure is enough to make you long for the days of Brooks Bollinger. But the quarterback was never the man who stirred the drink for Ryan. His most valuable player was a cornerback: Darrelle Revis, voted one of the Top 10 players in the NFL in 2011 and 2012.

New York got rid of Revis in 2013. And this Thursday (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS), he’ll be back to haunt Ryan and the Jets while wearing the scariest costume imaginable: a New England Patriots uniform. The Patriots have already been bet up as high as 10.5-point home favorites on the Week 7 NFL odds board; our consensus figures show 53.53 percent of early bettors on New England, although 84.90 percent of the action is on the underdogs.


One Man Is an Island
At least the sharps have faith that the Jets will find a way not to lose too badly. Nobody else seems to believe in Gang Green, and Ryan himself seems forlorn at the thought of having to face Revis. When reporters asked Ryan how he would react to seeing Revis wearing the uniform of his AFC East rivals, Ryan said, “A little sick to my stomach.”

It’s been a winding road for Revis since the Jets shipped him off to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year, rather than meet his contract demands. Revis (43 tackles, 11 passes defended, two forced fumbles, two INTs) made the Pro Bowl despite having to play for Greg Schiano and his sinking ship. His first appearance with the Bucs was against the Jets; in a sloppy game that proved ominous for both teams, Tampa Bay committed a foolish late penalty that allowed New York (+4 at home) to kick the winning field goal in an 18-17 final.

Revis escaped that situation when the rebuilding Buccaneers let him go after failing to find a suitable trade partner. New England scooped him up on the same day he was cut, and so far, Revis is firmly on track to make his sixth Pro Bowl in seven seasons. Last week’s 37-22 win over the Buffalo Bills (–1 at home) was standard fare: Bills WR Sammy Watkins was held to two catches on three targets for a grand total of 27 yards receiving. No wonder Ryan is feeling a bit queasy.


Idzik Goes Down
To be fair to the Jets, they didn’t trade Revis for a handful of magic beans. They got a pair of draft picks out of it, one of whom was DT Sheldon Richardson (No. 13 overall, 2013), the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year. That hasn’t stopped long-suffering Jets fans from calling for GM John Idzik’s dismissal (and not Ryan’s) after less than two years on the job. Never mind that he’s still trying to clean up the mess that owner Woody Johnson and previous GM Mike Tannenbaum left behind.

In theory, the Jets have some betting value here against the NFL lines – otherwise they wouldn’t be seeing so much early action. But the current front-office turmoil during a short week makes us leery, as does the way New England has rebounded from its slow start by using two and sometimes three tight ends in the same formation. Just like the good old days, when Aaron Hernandez was wearing blue instead of orange.


The Five Stars
Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: NE
Defense/Special Teams: NE
Coaching: NE
Market Bias: NYJ
Betting Line Value: NYJ

Verdict: 1-star pick on NE

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Patriots –10 (+108) at Pinnacle

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