Bet Panthers on Spread for Week 9 NFL Picks vs. Saints

Jason Lake

Tuesday, October 28, 2014 7:10 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2014 7:10 PM GMT

All the teams in the NFC South have losing records, but at least the Carolina Panthers have been a profitable NFL pick thus far. They’re also getting as many as three points at home against the New Orleans Saints.

Jason’s Record After Week 8: 24-33 ATS, 9-12-1 Totals

Profit: minus-29.93 units

 

It’s quite possible that the New Orleans Saints have solved their problems. They were 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS going into their bye week, but a few changes here and there, and presto, the Saints have covered back-to-back games. They still lost 24-23 to the Detroit Lions (–1.5 at home) in Week 7, but things went much better in Sunday night’s 44-23 victory over the Green Bay Packers (+2 away). New Orleans had 495 yards of total offense and a plus-two on takeaways vs. giveaways.

With the win, the Saints (3-4 SU and ATS) moved within a half-game of the NFC South leaders, the Carolina Panthers (3-4-1 SU, 5-3 ATS), who lost 13-9 to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday afternoon. But the Panthers did cash in as 6-point home dogs, and despite the loss, they can take solace in the fact that they bottled up the defending Super Bowl champions for the most part. Carolina supporters will also be happy to take the 2.5 points the Panthers are getting on the NFL odds board for Thursday night’s matchup against the Saints.

 

The Eye
Those points weren’t there when the NFL lines opened. The early odds coming out of Vegas this past Sunday had Carolina favored by 2.5 points, and that’s where the first online sportsbooks on the scene started doing business. But that was also before the Saints and Packers made their appearance on Sunday Night Football. New Orleans was a pick ‘em by Monday morning and a 2-point chalk by Monday evening.

The football odds are still under pressure as we go to press. Our consensus reports show New Orleans driving the market with 64 percent support at –2.5 (–105), and we’re starting to see –3 pop up here and there, albeit with positive juice. The Saints, for a change, weren’t the public darlings in last week’s win over the Packers, but things should be back to normal against the Panthers, so this line might just keep on moving all the way to kick-off (8:25 p.m. ET, NFLN). Note that CBS is not carrying this game – they’re back to their usual fall line-up of sitcoms and Sherlocksploitation.

 

Stoppage Time
We’ll go ahead and make Carolina one of our NFL picks at +3, vigorish be damned. We hate to beat a dead horse here, but the Saints are still not playing as well as people might think. The offense is definitely a thing of beauty; Drew Brees (311 yards, three TDs, zero INTs) put up plus-200 Total DYAR against the Packers, the best performance of all Week 8 quarterbacks not named Ben Roethlisberger or Tom Brady. And Mark Ingram (172 yards and a TD on 24 carries) had the most rushing DYAR of anyone at plus-67.

But we have to talk about the Saints defense. Green Bay nearly matched New Orleans with 491 yards of total offense, including 418 passing yards by Aaron Rodgers; according to Pro Football Reference, the Saints defense (which was last in the league in efficiency through Week 7) gave up 8.61 expected points to the Packers. Compare and contrast to the Panthers defense, which came up a plus-0.83 against Seattle and held the defending champions to 310 total yards of offense. It’s this difference in defensive performance that gives Carolina the extra betting edge at home against a Saints team that hasn’t played very well on the road in recent years.

 

The Five Stars
Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: NO
Defense/Special Teams: CAR
Coaching: NO
Market Bias: CAR
Betting Line Value: CAR

Verdict: 1-star pick on CAR

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Panthers +3 (–125) at Bodog

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