Bet Packers Home Cover Over Bears for Week 10 NFL Picks

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 5, 2014 2:16 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2014 2:16 PM UTC

The Green Bay Packers are pulling in twice as much money as the Chicago Bears for their Sunday night soirée. But if you’re adding the Packers to your NFL picks this week, you might want to shop around.

Jason’s record after Week 9: 26-36 ATS, 10-14-1 Totals

Profit: minus-34.81 units

Is it time to stick a fork in the Chicago Bears? They’ve lost four of their last five games SU and ATS, they’ve had key injuries on both sides of the ball, nobody likes QB Jay Cutler, and there’s every chance head coach Marc Trestman doesn’t make it out of this mess with his job intact. It’s not the best situation to be in with the Green Bay Packers next on the schedule; the Week 10 NFL odds have Green Bay laying between seven and eight points at home, so mind the vigorish whichever side you’re betting on.

Don't miss out on SBR's Props Odds Comparison on this Friday Night Game!

The Numbers Don’t Lie
Spoiler alert: Green Bay is one of our football picks this week, and while it’s only for our smallest bet size against the spread, we’re more confident in this NFL pick than for most games where we’re risking a mouthful of chalk. The gap in quality between these two teams is just that pronounced.

We’ll let the advanced stats tell the tale. First up, the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) charts at Football Outsiders have Green Bay ranked No. 5 overall in efficiency, driven primarily by QB Aaron Rodgers and the No. 3-ranked offense. The rest of the team is fairly middling, ranking No. 16 in defensive efficiency and No. 12 on special teams through Week 9. That’s still miles ahead of the No. 21-overall Bears (No. 14 offense, No. 23 defense, No. 30 special teams).

Moving over to our friendly friends at Pro Football Reference, we see the Packers with a plus-3.6 SRS (Simple Rating System), which only ranks No. 10 overall. That’s because SRS really doesn’t like Green Bay’s defense (minus-1.7 SRS). Interesting. Anyway, Chicago checks in with a minus-0.8 SRS, so if you ignore all the other factors, you’re looking at a rough estimate of Packers –6 at home. Close enough for non-government work.


Heal Me
The problem for Chicago is that those efficiency numbers represent the entire season. If the Bears still had the same team they had in September, maybe they wouldn’t be in this mess. Injuries have not been kind this year; the latest casualties are LE Lamarr Houston (knee) and LG Matt Slauson (chest), both of them done for the year. You can also write out WR Marquess Wilson (clavicle), who will reportedly not be activated from injured reserve this week. This is on top of the season-ending injuries to CB Charles “Peanut” Tillman (triceps) and TE Zach Miller (foot).

As for Trestman, if the Bears decide to show him the door, we’ll sure he’ll find gainful employment elsewhere as an offensive co-ordinator. His defenses haven’t been up to snuff, but how much of that was because of injuries? Last year’s No. 25-ranked Chicago defense suffered 55.7 Adjusted Games Lost, or third-worst in the league. And they just kept on dropping like flies this year, including in Week 8 when the New England Patriots rolled them 51-23 as 5.5-point road dogs.

Green Bay’s more than happy to kick the Bears while they’re down. But the Packers aren’t at 100 percent health, either. RG T.J. Lang is considered questionable for Sunday night (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC) after spraining his ankle in Week 8 against the New Orleans Saints; the Packers also released tackle Derek Sherrod on Monday, although they also brought the versatile JC Tretter back from injured reserve. As long as Rodgers has enough warm bodies in front of him at Lambeau, he should be able to weave his usual magic against what’s left of the Bears.


The Five Stars
Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: GB
Defense/Special Teams: GB
Coaching: GB
Market Bias: CHI
Betting Line Value: CHI

Verdict: 1-star pick on GB

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Packers –7 (–115) at Bookmaker

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