Aaron Rodgers is simply playing at another level under center this year, which makes Green Bay the NFL pick as a double-digit home favorite against Atlanta Monday night.
A Solid Stretch
Atlanta sits tied atop the NFC South standings with the New Orleans Saints despite having a minus-eight point differential, which is important to consider when making your NFL betting picks, as it has captured three of its last four games. The Falcons have dropped four of their six contests away from the Georgia Dome—failing to cover those setbacks by an average of 11.8 points.
Over the last two-plus seasons, the squad is 6-15 SU and 11-10 ATS as underdogs.
Green Bay is one of five squads undefeated at home this season, which can’t be ignored when looking over the NFL betting odds, especially since it has put together a dominating 52-17-1 SU record at Lambeau Field during the regular season under head coach Mike McCarthy.
The Packers have outscored their last five opponents on this field by a combined 151-23 margin in the first half, while they pace the league in scoring 245 points at home.
It’s important to point out that the team is 3-0 ATS as favorites of 10.5 to 14 points in its last three opportunities in front of its loyal fan base.
Ryan Is Capable
The Falcons will need signal-caller Matt Ryan to build off his 361-yard performance in last week’s 29-18 victory over the Arizona Cardinals as 1.5-point home underdogs, as they out-gained an opponent for the first time in seven contests.
Ryan has thrown for six touchdowns and just two interceptions in his last three Monday Night Football games, but he threw for just 206 yards in a 22-21 loss on this field a year ago as 3.5-point underdogs.
Raising the Bar
The Packers have won their last 10 regular-season home games with Rodgers under center, as he’s managed to throw for 31 touchdowns and zero interceptions over that period of time.
Green Bay has won three of his four home starts when featured on this primetime telecast—combining for 718 yards and eight touchdowns versus just two picks.
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Packers as one of their top ATS NFL picks, as they’ve gone 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games in December.
Free NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers -12.5 at Bookmaker