Bet 'Over' for Panthers vs. Eagles Monday Night Football Picks

Jason Lake

Friday, November 7, 2014 10:46 PM GMT

Judging by Monday night’s NFL odds, people aren’t too concerned about Mark Sanchez slowing down the Philadelphia Eagles. The OVER is getting tons of action as the Eagles prepare to host the Carolina Panthers.

Jason’s record after Week 9: 26-36 ATS, 10-14-1 Totals

Profit: minus-34.81 units

We’ve already decided that the Philadelphia Eagles are still worth betting as 6-point favorites this Monday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) against the Carolina Panthers. So have most bettors, according to our consensus reports. Nobody seems too worried about Mark Sanchez taking over at quarterback for the injured Nick Foles – if only because Foles has played replacement-level football this season.


That confidence is even more pronounced when it comes to Monday’s total. We saw 95 percent of bettors jump on the OVER when it opened at 48 points, and 48 is where it remains on our Week 10 NFL odds board as we go to press. The OVER is 5-3 for Philadelphia on the season, and it cashed in last week when Sanchez came in and led the Eagles to a 31-21 victory against the Houston Texans (OVER 48.5). Will Carolina do anything different this week?

 

This Is Your Left
Maybe not. The Carolina Panthers (OVER 5-4) have been just about as mediocre as the Texans this year; the DVOA charts at Football Outsiders have Carolina ranked No. 24 overall (No. 20 offense, No. 24 defense, No. 18 special teams), one spot ahead of Houston (No. 22 offense, No. 13 defense, No. 27 special teams). If anything, the struggling Panthers defense might give the OVER an extra boost.

The question is whether Carolina’s offense will provide any punch after scoring a combined 19 points in the past two games. Again, there’s reason for optimism: The Panthers will have their offensive line back at full strength with the return of LT Byron Bell, LG Amini Silatolu and RG Trai Turner. They’ll be welcome additions to a line that ranks No. 30 in run blocking and No. 22 in pass protection.

The Panthers also have their top two running backs ready to roll. Both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart played in last week’s 28-10 loss to the New Orleans Saints (UNDER 48.5); throw mobile QB Cam Newton into the mix, and Carolina picked up a respectable 4.7 yards per carry against the Saints, even with the compromised offensive line. The Eagles have the No. 5-ranked rush defense in the league, so nothing’s going to come easy Monday night, but at least the Panthers have all hands on deck.

 

It’s Occasionally Sunny in Philadelphia
We can’t talk about Carolina’s O-line without mentioning Philadelphia’s problems. After enjoying a rare healthy season in 2013, the Eagles line has been playing musical chairs. The latest victim: RG Todd Herremans, who suffered a torn biceps and was put on injured reserve earlier this week. Not good, but LG Evan Mathis (knee) is coming off IR after getting hurt in the season opener, and that’s a bigger deal than losing Herremans. Matt Tobin, who has been filling in for Mathis, will presumably slide over to Herremans’ spot on the right side against Carolina.

And now, the weather: Mostly clear skies over The Linc with light winds and an evening low of 43 degrees Fahrenheit (6° Celsius for our international readers). That’s about as good as you could hope for on a November night in Philly. Of course, you should always check the weather reports for any outdoor game, but it gets even more important now that we’re in the second half of the regular season. Next week’s early report calls for snow.

It’s entirely possible that Carolina will find a way to gum up this game, or that Sanchez will slip back into Butt Fumble Mode. That’s not enough of a threat to move us from our default stance of adding the OVER to our NFL picks. The total’s manageable, the weather’s good – let’s make it a picnic while we’re at it. Pass the cole slaw.

Free NFL Pick: Bet one unit on OVER 48 (+104) at 5Dimes

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