Bet 'Over' 48.5 for Broncos vs. Seahawks NFL Picks

Kevin Stott

Friday, September 19, 2014 4:57 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 19, 2014 4:57 PM UTC

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos are in Seattle on Sunday afternoon to face Russell Wilson and the defending NFL champion Seahawks in a Super Bowl rematch in what’s sure to be a heavily bet Week 3 game.

Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks, CBS, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT
When two of the very best teams in the NFL play, it’s often hard to find a decent betting edge without really scouring everything and this matchup between the host and NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) and the AFC champion Denver Broncos (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) is certainly no exception. With the Seahawks favored by 4½ to 5 points as the weekend nears, and the Total at 48½, it’s hard not to look at the underdog Broncos and also the Total to go Over here, with it (the Over) being 7-3 the L10 in this series, averaging 51.5 ppg since 1999. And with Denver QB Peyton Manning (43-61, 511 yards, 6 TDs) still on top of his masterful game, and a plethora of receivers to throw to on a team designed specifically around and because of him, Broncos Overs are easy to like, although last week’s meeting in the Mile High City with its AFC West counterpart, the Kansas City Chiefs, went Under the total (U49) as the Broncos held on for a 24-17 win. The game was on a pretty good pace to go Over the Total with a 21-10 halftime score, but a scoreless third quarter and a 10-point fourth quarter kept those who bet Under 49 very happy, and maybe a bit surprised and frustrated Over bettors. Scoreless quarters are never good for Over bettors.

When these two heavyweights played in February in Super Bowl XLVIII, Seattle almost went Over the Total of 47 themselves, romping to a 43-8 win to bring back the first NFL championship to the Emerald City, destroying the point spread as 2-point underdogs. For Denver (4/1 to win Super Bowl, 7/5 AFC, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), trying to beat the mighty Seahawks (7/2 to win Super Bowl, 9/5 to win NFC) at a neutral site like MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey in the Super Bowl, and losing by 35 points is a tough pill to swallow but now head coach John Fox (30-24-2 ATS) and the has to rally his team to try to beat Seattle at home where the Seahawks are 18-1 SU in their L19 at Home and  Seattle is also an impressive 17-5 ATS in its L22 at Home, and have a raucous home-field advantage that just may be the best in the all of the NFL. The last time the Broncos came to town—although they did not have Manning the Elder—they rolled to a 31-9 win, in a game that was the last time these two went Under the Total (U43) as the last three meetings (SEA 43-8, DEN 31-14, SEA 23-20) have all gone Over. Some food for thought.

NFL Odds report for Broncos-Seahawks Super Bowl Rematch


Injuries and Some Returning Key Players May Be Good For the Over in This
Broncos WR and probably Peyton Manning’s favorite target, Wes Welker (-110, Anytime TD Scorer, Sky Bet), is extremely likely to return to action on Sunday after his suspension—and with this being such a huge game, expect him in there—while teammates G Ben Garland (ankle) and S David Burton (shoulder) are both listed as questionable with much-needed All-Pro LB Von Miller, LB Nate Irving and CB Chris Harris all listed as probable against the world champs. The big injury question for Seattle is RB Marshawn Lynch’s (146 yards, 3 TDs) bad back, but after missing practice on Wednesday, Lynch was back at practice on Thursday and reportedly looked “unhindered,” so, like Welker, expect him to play. The Seahawks have a number of other injuries, including TEs Zach Miller (ankle) and Cooper Heifert (knee), RB Christine Michael and LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (hamstring) all of whom are listed as questionable, and SS Kam Chancellor, who is listed as probable. TE Miller will be there likely in a game of this magnitude and the Anytime TD Scorer odds (+110, Sky Bet) indicate expectations of both his presence and participation.

With the total in this game at 48½—Seattle’s Team Total is 26½ (Sky Bet) while Denver’s Team Total is at 22—and the last three meetings between these two teams going Over—and 7 of the last 9—and guys like Welker and Lynch probably playing and the long-drive capable Manning and Wilson calling the shots, a game with both teams topping the 30-point mark could be on the horizon. But opening up against Green Bay at home (W 36-16, -4½) and then traveling to San Diego to dance with the underrated Chargers (L 21-30, -4½) is one nasty way to start the season for the Seahawks, so, even Pete Carroll’s (44-26-1 ATS, 11-2 ATS HF off Non-Divisional game) team has to be a bit little tired and beat up, and facing the Broncos will ensure that they will remain tired and beat up. Welcome to the jungle.


Profiting Off Anytime TD Scorer Prop Markets in Likely High-Scoring Game
Taking a chance on Denver on the Money Line (+185, bet365) here against Seattle (-225) is only for the strong-willed, knowing the Seahawks are coming off of a tough loss and have won 19 of their last 20 games in the City That Gave Us Starbucks. And although Denver is exactly the type of team that can go up to Seattle and win, the fact that in the last three meetings at least one team has had 4 Turnovers, means if that drastic imbalance happens again, it could be a bad thing for Under bettors. Laying the 4½ with the Seahawks doesn’t look particularly appetizing, and Seattle is an anemic 25th in the NFL in Passing (185.5 ypg) and its leading receiver, Jermaine Kearse (69 yards, +225 Anytime TD Scorer, Sky Bet), has an extremely low number of reception yards for a team’s leading receiver heading into Week 3.

This is an ideal game, if desired,  to avoid a side or total—despite the high-profile and national CBS broadcast—and to just focus on who will possibly get the 5 to 7 expected TDs in a game with a Total at 48½. Oddsmakers have aforementioned Seahawks RB Lynch a heavy favorite (-300, Sky Bet) in this prop bet category, with Denver teammates Demaryius Thomas (-150), TE  Julius Thomas (-150), bullworker Welker (-110) and RB Montee Ball (-100) all given decent chances, by the looks of the numbers, at scoring against Seattle on Sunday.

Manning will no doubt want to get Welker a TD in his presumed return, and the short, buttonhook-type routes the diminutive veteran runs are ideal to connect on against one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Broncos TE Julius Thomas will be a prime target, and the way San Diego Chargers TE Antonio Gates got open in single-coverage against Seahawks’ LB’s last Sunday is no doubt something Broncos coach Fox and his staff took note of. But for me, it’s two somewhat nondescript guys on Denver worth an Anytime TD Scorer wager in RB Ball (-100) and the team’s offseason signing from the Pittsburgh Steelers, WR Emmanuel Sanders (14 receptions, 185 yards/13.2 ypc, +175), who gets his first score in a Broncos uniform from one of the game’s greatest QB’s.

Potential Seattle TD scorers are harder to pin down, and with Lynch at -300, the word value has to be used, at least in some context. The Seahawks may be thrust into a shootout in Manning connects early on and established some long Denver drives, then that is a distinct possibility. The Broncos are honestly catching Seattle in a good spot, albeit at home. Seahawks WR Percy Harvin (-120) is my pick here for Anytime TD Scorer from Seattle, as the speedster (4.41 40-yard dash) should find gaps in Denver’s secondary and potentially take one to the house. Fellow WRs Doug Baldwin (+120) and the aforementioned Kearse (+225), TE Zach Miller (+110) and even QB Wilson (+400) could all score for Seattle here also, but besides Lynch, TE Miller seems like the most logical connecte in what should be a very entertaining game....this time around.


Trends and What to Do With Sides and a Total Both Just Too Close To Call
The trends here are a mixed and conflicting bag, further reason to isolate on the Anytime TD Scorer props market here and hope at least 2 of the 3 win. The Seahawks on the NFL odds moneyline (-225, bet365) is definitely worth a look—and may be a good parlay element—but it’s the Over 48½ that seems the simplest way to go, with a shootout very possible on the friendly FieldTurf and so many talented skill position players—especially on the Broncos roster. The Over is 13-6 in Denver’s L19 Road games and 7-2 L9 vs. the Seahawks, so despite 6 of the Broncos L8 going Under, I would rather have the Over in a game which will have many timeouts, commercials and official reviews, because of its importance and high-profile. Manning has some powerful ATS numbers heading in here, including a 68-55-5 ATS mark Away, 53-44-1 ATS with Revenge (Super Bowl) and an incredible 93-66-4 ATS mark against Non-Division opponents.

University of Wisconsin-product Wilson (14-5-1 ATS Home) is no slouch himself, though, and the Seahawks are one of the best teams we’ve seen in this league a very long time, but this just doesn’t look like the spot (after GB and SD), the team (the AFC champ Broncos), the quarterback (Peyton Manning) or the number (-4½ or -5) to be starting off down in such a crucial early-season game. The Broncos are 12-2 SU in their L14 and 12-4 SU L16 vs. Seattle, but we all know that was a different Seahawks team and a different time so instead of taking a side here, a creative approach is to bet the Over 48½ and take some logical Anytime TD Scorer props. This will be a fun one for your NFL picks.

NFL PICK: Over 48½ at 5Dimes

PROPS PICKS: Percy Harvin Anytime TD Scorer -120, Montee Ball Anytime TD Scorer -100, Emmanuel Sanders Anytime TD Scorer +175 (Sky Bet)

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