Bet Juicy Niners Spread vs. Broncos for Week 7 NFL Picks

Jason Lake

Thursday, October 16, 2014 2:18 PM GMT

What happens when you put two of the NFL’s most popular teams on the same field? You get a very slow start on the NFL odds for Sunday night’s game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Denver Broncos.

Jason’s Record After Week 6: 21-22 ATS, 5-10-1 Totals

Profit: minus-13.99 units

 

Every once in a while, the NFL delivers an outstanding matchup between two high-quality, high-profile teams. And go figure, they usually reserve that matchup for Sunday Night Football. This is the league’s marquee broadcast, prime time over the terrestrial waves at NBC so that just about everyone can watch. Why do they give away their best product for free? Here’s an experiment: See how much of Sunday night’s broadcast (8:30 p.m. ET) contains actual football, and how much of it is advertising.

Be that as it may, we’ll find some excellent football hidden in there somewhere when the San Francisco 49ers (4-2 SU and ATS) visit the Denver Broncos (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) in a potential Super Bowl XLIX preview. Should be exciting, right? Tell it to the sharps. This was the last game on the Week 7 NFL odds board to pull in enough action to produce an expanded consensus report.

 

Tipping the Scales
No doubt we’ll see a flood of money coming in for this game once the weekend rolls around. As we’ve already discussed, the Niners and especially the Broncos are two of the most public teams going. They’re not used to bringing in a lot of action from the sharps. In this case, Denver has a slight edge in early betting at 56 percent consensus and 56 percent of the monies wagered, but each team has an average bet size of $39. That’ll barely get you an eighth of Golden Goat in Pueblo.

It is enough action, though, to push the spread for Monday night’s game from San Francisco +6.5 to +7. And that could easily be the difference between cashing in and not cashing in. Seven points is the second most common margin of victory in NFL games; the Broncos won their first two games this year by seven points at home, but failed to beat the spread against the Indianapolis Colts (+8) and the Kansas City Chiefs (+13).

 

This Is My Boomstick
The Niners had an even rougher start to the 2014 campaign at 1-2 SU and ATS – just like they did last year, under similar circumstances. Injuries? Check. Suspensions, including LB Aldon Smith? Check. Concern over head coach Jim Harbaugh’s near future? Check. San Francisco shook it off in 2013 and went on a five-game undefeated streak SU and ATS. They’re already 60 percent of the way this year, beating the Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) and the aforementioned Chiefs (+4.5) at home before putting away the St. Louis Rams (+3.5) Monday night at The Jones.

This should give Niners fans plenty of encouragement for Sunday’s game. Otherwise, it’s clear that Denver is the better team on paper. Not only are the Broncos No. 1 on the DVOA charts (No. 1 offense, No. 2 defense, No. 18 special teams), they’ve also got an NFL-best plus-13.5 SRS, well ahead of San Francisco at plus-5.0 SRS. That roughly translates to an 11-point advantage for the Broncos at Mile High.

We’re going to go ahead and make a small bet on the Niners anyway, given their recently improved results, the coaching expertise of Mr. Tan Pants, and the extra betting line value we get at the magic number seven. If you’re in agreement, you might want to wait until closer to kick-off before making your NFL picks, just in case you can get San Francisco at a juicy +7.5. Shop smart. Shop SF-Mart.

 

The Five Stars
Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: DEN
Defense/Special Teams: DEN
Coaching: SF
Market Bias: SF
Betting Line Value: SF
Verdict: 1-star pick on SF
Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the 49ers +7 (–115) at BetOnline

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