Bet the Juicy 50-Pt. Total for Giants vs. Eagles NFL Pick

Jason Lake

Saturday, October 11, 2014 8:24 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 11, 2014 8:24 PM UTC

Before placing your NFL pick for Week 6, know that there’s a juicy 50-point total waiting for the the Philadelphia Eagles on the NFL odds board for Sunday night’s game against the NY Giants. 

Jason’s Record after Week 5: 19-16 ATS, 5-7-1 Totals

Profit: Plus-0.1 units

If everyone jumped off a bridge, would you do it too? There was a time when betting the 'over' was like that; it was something only squares were supposed to do, and the sharps were supposed to take advantage of the distorted NFL betting market by doing the opposite. But that’s just so 2008. Scoring has risen so quickly that sharps and squares often find themselves on the same side, making the 'over' the default choice for NFL picks against the total.

That’s certainly the case for Sunday night’s game (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC) between the New York Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles. This NFC East rivalry game opened with a total of 50 on the Week 6 NFL odds board, and according to our consensus reports, 70 percent of bettors jumped on the OVER right out of the box. We’re still seeing two-thirds support for the 'over' as we go to press, and that’s not likely to go any lower this weekend when the betting public gets off work.

So how are the books supposed to make money if everyone’s betting the 'over?' Well, not quite everyone is jumping off that bridge – just the majority of people. There’s still lots of 'under' money in the market, and if we follow the old rules of betting psychology, those should still be sharper and larger bets.

Plus, it’s not like the sharps and squares are holding hands and jumping off together. The standard rule of thumb is that veteran handicappers bet early in the week, often right at the open, while casual bettors are more likely to bet in the hours (or minutes) leading up to the game in question. There’s room in there for the NFL lines to change as necessary during the week. Action will be balanced.

Turning 50
When it comes to this particular total, we did see a slight move from the NFL odds on Wednesday, from 50 points to 50.5. Not much of a move, really; the fair price of buying that half-point, according to the Wizard of Odds, would be 4.2 cents. Also, the total dropped right back down to 50 points Thursday afternoon at more than half of the 30 featured online sportsbooks on our NFL odds board.

Don’t take these moves lightly, though. They could be the difference between winning or not. Last Sunday, the Giants beat the Atlanta Falcons 30-20, and the “official” closing total for that game was 50.5 points. Some books had it at 51 by kick-off. The total was 49.5 points at the open, so you can imagine there were a lot of people on either side who were pleased or disappointed with their timing last week.

Seven the Hard Way
As for Sunday’s matchup itself, the Eagles have the 'over' at 4-1 after five weeks, scoring at least 30 points in each of those four blowouts. Don’t give all the credit to Chip Kelly’s offense, though. Philadelphia’s special teams have scored four touchdowns this season, and the defense has three more. It’s good to know that the Eagles are capable of putting extra points on the scoreboard, but those points are difficult to replicate from week to week. They’re more like happy accidents.

We’re still going to bet the 'over' for this NFL pick. The Giants have really picked up steam over the last three weeks, again scoring at least 30 points in each of those games. The 'over'is 2-1 during this stretch, or 3-0 if you happened to bet that Falcons matchup early enough. Dial us up for the standard single betting unit, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

Free NFL Pick: Bet one units on 'over' 50 (+100) at BookMaker

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