Bet Jets vs. Texans to Go 'Under' 44.5 With Your Week 11 NFL Picks

Jason Lake

Saturday, November 21, 2015 1:09 AM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015 1:09 AM UTC

The Houston Texans defense made a dramatic re-appearance last week. That's a promising sign for people looking to add the UNDER to their NFL picks this Sunday.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 20: 39-34-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 22-29 Total

The Houston Texans haven't given up a touchdown in nearly a month. Okay, there was a bye week in there, but the Texans beat the Tennessee Titans 20-6 (UNDER 43) in Week 8, then they shocked the previously unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals 10-6 (UNDER 46.5) in Week 10. Where was that defense the first two months of the season? It's a mystery wrapped in an enigma.

Compare and contrast to the New York Jets, who seem to have forgotten how to play defense since taking the bye in Week 5. They've got the OVER at 4-1 since then, and now they're going into NRG Stadium with a number of question marks for Sunday's matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS). For example: Who the heck will Houston start at quarterback? Probably T.J. Yates, but it's uncertain enough that this game is circled at just about every sportsbook on our NFL odds board at press time.


Yates Is on Your Side
Except for one. YouWager has a total of 44.5 points up on the board, so we'll be working with that for our Week 11 NFL picks. We're also going to assume that Yates does indeed get the start over Brian Hoyer, who suffered a concussion – with some memory loss – during the win over Cincinnati. Texans head coach Bill O'Brien won't commit to starting Yates, but if that's anything more than a smoke screen, someone's got some 'splainin' to do.

Yates definitely has us thinking about the UNDER in this situation. Hoyer has played quite well for the Texans, ranking No. 13 overall in passing DVOA through Week 10. That puts him in the same company as Philip Rivers (No. 12) and Matt Ryan (No. 14). Yates will be making his first start since 2011, when he was pressed into service in relief of Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart. He made five starts during the regular season and performed at below replacement level (–81 passing DYAR).


Hand in Glove
The New York Jets weren't quite sure who'd play quarterback this week, either, but former Texans starter Ryan Fitzpatrick was given the go-ahead after having surgery on his non-throwing hand. Although Fitzpatrick missed a couple of practices this week, New York had a few extra days to burn after losing 22-17 (UNDER 42) to the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football.

As for that Jets defense, the secondary has been beaten up with injuries, and DE Sheldon Richardson (hamstring) might miss this game after sitting out Friday's practice. Not ideal, but with Yates expected to start for Houston, and the Texans defense coming out of hibernation – or whatever it's called when you sleep through Autumn – we're fine with placing a small wager on the UNDER.

NFL Picks: Take UNDER 44.5 at YouWager

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