Bet Jets Plus the Points vs. Chargers for Week 5 NFL Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 3, 2014 9:04 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 3, 2014 9:04 PM UTC

Join us as we look to continue our winning streak by offering you our choice NFL picks for the Week 5 NFL matchup between the New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers. NFL odds have the Chargers at -7 but should we bite? 

New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers (-7) 4:25 ET
Contrary thinking has long been linked to NFL pointspread success.  It is the basis for the PERCEPTION/REALITY games which have long been successful on these pages.  Last Monday night, we won our 3rd consecutive NFL PERCEPTION/REALITY game, when the KC Chiefs stunned the public and the New England Patriots with a 41-14 wire-to-wire win.  Anyone who read my analysis understands that it was not a surprise to my bureau.  Today’s selection on the New York Jets provides us with another great opportunity to use this pointspread success to isolate a pointspread winner. for your NFL picks this week.

The public will be eager to back the San Diego Chargers in this one.  San Diego comes in with 3 consecutive victories and 4-0 ATS for the season, covering the number by a combined 35 points.   The passing of QB Rivers has been exceptional, as he has clicked on 70% of his throws, good for 8.2 yards per attempt (the 3rd best number in the NFL).  An underrated defense has helped pave the way.  The Chargers are allowing just 16 PPG, including contests against Arizona and Seattle.  It is clear the public will favor the QB edge that Rivers provides over Geno Smith, who is completing just 60% of his passes for 6.3 YPG.  New York lost a 24-17 decision on Sunday to Detroit.  Though outrushing the Lions 132-88, it was the secondary that again let down the Jets. Continuing issues at DB are another reason why the public will be eager to back the Rivers’ led Chargers. 

But, there are 3 key indicators that favor my contrary selection on the Jets in this contest.  From a fundamental perspective, the Jets’ ground game is in fine form, outrushing their 4 opponents by an average of 151/4.9 to 63/3.0.   Second is a technical consideration which finds that Game 4 NFL teams, who are 1-3 SU following a loss vs. a foe who is off a win, have been a greater than 75% ATS play for 25 years.  Finally, the Jets are the number one TO play of the week.  Their -6 net TO margin combines with the Chargers +5 net TO margin for a combined -11 net TO margin, a situation that strongly advocates a turnaround.  With the Jets standing 7-3 ATS as dog of late and getting plenty of pointspred value, I am confident they will return your 4th consecutive PERCEPTION/REALITY winner on these pages.

Free NFL Picks: Take the Jets on the NFL odds pointspread at 5Dimes

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