Bet Jaguars to cover vs. Colts in your NFL Picks

Joe Catalano

Monday, December 23, 2013 4:38 PM GMT

Monday, Dec. 23, 2013 4:38 PM GMT

It’s just a matter of playoff positioning as the Colts face a very weak Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11) team in week 17. Will Andrew Luck sit out and make this a more interesting bet? Let's take a look at the odds and find our NFL pick.

Some NFL teams are having a difficult time of solidifying a playoff spot as we go down to the last week of the NFL season, but this isn’t the case for the Indianapolis Colts (10-5) who have clinched the division title in a weak AFC South Division.

According to 5 Dimes Sportsbook, the Colts are a steep 13 point betting favorite and the total for the game is 45.5.

Do You Take the Bait?

You have to remember that Indianapolis has the number 4 spot sealed, and could land a potential 2 spot if fate is on there side in the AFC playoff picture. Cincinnati has the Colts beaten for the number 3 spot via the tie breaker, but a Bengals or Patriots loss will move them up a spot so long as they win. Suppose both teams lose, a Colts win will give them that coveted 2 spot right behind the Broncos. This means that the Colts still have some incentive to come out and play, even in a season ending game with the lowly Jaguars.

Expect Andrew Luck to take an early seat on the bench in this game. Although Indy is coming off of a dominant 23-7 victory over Kansas City, Jacksonville might be the play here as they have nothing to lose while keeping Chad Henne, a quarterback who can be hot at times, in the entire ball game.

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Luck or Lousy Division?

Another thing to take into account is that Indianapolis plays in a really poor division and has feasted off it in the process. The Colts went undefeated against AFC South opponents and that’s a big reason why they’ve reached double-digit wins with Andrew Luck behind center. Luck had a better season in his rookie year, but when the degree of difficulty is low, it’s easy to look good.

By no means am I saying that Andrew Luck had a bad year. He’s the future of the NFL, but he’s a year or two away from being in the same category as the elite NFL quarterbacks. On the season, Luck has thrown for 3540 yards with 22 TD’s and 9 INT’s. This is a player with a major upside in need of more targets.

The Colts defense is another issue. They rank 28th in the league in rushing yards allowed. This can possibly open the door for Jordan Todman, who is coming off of a 109 yard rushing day in a hard fought loss to Buffalo two weeks ago.

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Glimpses of Excellence

Chad Henne is one of those frustrating quarterbacks on your fantasy football team. One game, he can look like Joe Montana and throw for 350 yards and the next game he can throw for 100 yards and 2 picks. The reason why Henne will never get respect in the league is due to his lack of consistency. Against a Colts team who has already landed a top 4 spot in the playoffs, this can be an ideal spot for the 6th year player out of Michigan. Although Indy is very good against the run, expect them to call the dogs off early in a game of little importance.

Outcome

This game has no relevance in the scheme of the NFL Playoffs. Indianapolis certainly doesn’t want to get Andrew Luck hurt and for that, I’m siding with the Jags and the double-digit points for our NFL pick.

Pick- Jacksonville +13 at 5 Dimes

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