Bet Jaguars -3 With Your Thursday Night Football NFL Picks vs. Titans

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, November 19, 2015 6:51 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 19, 2015 6:51 PM UTC

In this article we preview the Thursday Night Football contest between the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars and provide a valuable NFL pick.

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) 8:25 ET NFL NTWK
It’s the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars to kickoff Week 11 in NFL action this Thursday night.  These two teams are part of a pathetic AFC South whose division leader is 4-5 SU Indianapolis.  It is hard to believe that the Titans at 2-7 SU and the Jags at 3-6 SU are still in the hunt.  These teams come off dichotomous results from last week with the Titans’ 1 game success being short-lived.  Last week, they lost at home (27-10) to undefeated Carolina.  Jacksonville stole one at Baltimore (22-20) as 6 point home dog.  Each of these teams has some positives on the defensive side of the ball.  But, they are still struggling to put points on the board.


Tennessee Titans
The Titans made a coaching change 3 weeks ago, when they fired former HC Whisenhunt following a (20-6) loss at Houston.  That culminated a 6-game losing streak and a run of 4 games in which the Titans scored a total of only 36 points.  They rebounded in the first week under new HC Mularkey with a (34-28) victory at New Orleans, arguably the worst defense in the league.  But, that success was short-lived as they returned to their impotent offensive ways in a (27-10) loss last Sunday at home.  In that contest, Carolina won the line scrimmage 119-64 and profited from a (+2) net TO margin.  Now, the Titans look to rebound on the road behind a Top 5 defense that allows just 321 yards per game.  Yet, that offense still in a learning curve under 1st year QB Mariota, is averaging just 322 YPG.  Among a plethora of negative roles for the Titans in recent years is their 5-19 ATS divisional log. 


Jacksonville Jaguars
There are some technical and situational reasons to have concern when backing the Jacksonville Jaguars in this role.  They enter on a 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS run with wins vs. Buffalo in London, a cover at the Jets in a 5 point loss and that 22-20 win at Baltimore last week.  Before you get too excited about that victory, note that Baltimore won the yardage battle 397-258, but the Jags profited from a (+3) net TO margin, an over 90% indicator of ATS success.  Now, Jacksonville returns to a home field where they are just 7-19 ATS of late and are favored for only the 3rd time in the last 52 games.  That’s a lot of weight for the Jags to carry!  On the positive side, Jacksonville is 7-1 ATS in their recent series against this division foe.  They also feature QB Bortles, a 2nd year pro who is a year further ahead in his development than Mariota.  The offense is abetted by RB Yeldon, who has lifted the Jags’ ground assault.  Together, they have led Jacksonville to 21 PPG, a 5 point increase over their perennial average of 16 PPG the previous4 years.  On the defensive side of the ball, it should be noted that the 3.3 DEF YPR leads the NFL. 

This is a tough call in a game between teams who have each matched their win total from last season.  Belief from this bureau is that the Titans got a 1-game bump with the hiring of Mularkey against a New Orleans defense who is worst in the league.  The Jags are playing a bit more consistently and are clearly in better form.  I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and join me with my Thursday Night NFL pick on the Jacksonville Jaguars.          

NFL Picks: Jaguars -3 at Bovada

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