Bet Dolphins at PK vs. Bills for Sunday's NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, September 10, 2014 7:24 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 10, 2014 7:24 PM UTC

In Week 1 the Dolphins and Bills both had big upset wins over potential playoff teams, and this week one of them will continue with their momentum. The NFL Odds have this game at an even pick em’, with a total of 43 points. 

Unlikely 1-0s
Not only did these two teams have big wins this past Sunday, they both were slated to go 0-1 to start the season. However solid defense, and better than average offense ruled the day for both teams. Miami’s offense really came alive in the second half, and even though the box score says Ryan Tannehill had less than 200 yards passing, the Dolphins ran all over the Patriots. The Bears had some success running the football this past week as well, and I expect the Fins to once again have a stout running game behind Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller.

On the other side, the Bills will likely still have some issues with the pass, and while Tannehill is no Jay Cutler, that may be a good and bad thing this week. Even though they’re on the road, Miami has a pretty balanced offense. Plus their defense is much better than what Chicago pulled out this Sunday.

I expect the Bills to once again load up on the run, and use EJ Manuel’s mobility and quickness to set up the pass. Even though I don’t think they’re going to be great this season, this kind of plays into Miami’s hands. They are a very athletic defense, and they have the quickness to keep up with the elusive Manuel, and the very dynamic, CJ Spiller.

Compare Our Cappers Thoughts On This Matchup!

The Sharp Pick
These two teams famously played at the end of last season, and in a 19-0 game, the Bills pretty much ruined Miami’s playoff chances. The Dolphins are a better team than the one that played in Buffalo at the end of the season, and even though Miami hasn’t been great against the Bills recently, that is about to change this Sunday afternoon. While Buffalo did win and cover the NFL odds both meetings against Miami last season, the Bills are only 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS win.

On top of that they are only 7-22-1 ATs coming off of a SU win over the last several seasons. The Dolphins on the other hand are 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off of a SU win, and now 5-1 ATS in their last six September games dating back to last season. Last season Miami started off the year somewhat well, and then of course collapsed at the end. Even if this is another one of those seasons, the Bills aren’t going to put up enough of a fight. Winning against Chicago is a great accomplishment, but the Bears lost that game, the Bills did not win it. On the other hand, the Dolphins won the game against New England last week, and I think they can do the same in Buffalo for our NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Dolphins PK (-110) at 5Dimes

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