Bet Dolphins & Patriots to Go 'Over' 51 With Your NFL Picks

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, October 28, 2015 10:58 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2015 10:58 PM UTC

The Dolphins head north to Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts on Thursday night to face Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots. What's the right NFL pick for this game?

Focusing on the Total here and looking at the L10 games played at New England, the Totals are a dead even 5-5 so is there any edge to be had? Let’s take an in-depth look at all the details and Trends, think about the situation and see if there is a worthy Totals NFL pick—at the somewhat high Totals number of 51 on the NFL odds board—to be had here in the Bay State.


Odds Overview
What: NFL Week 8—Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Massachusetts

When: Thursday, October 29, 2015

Time: 8:25 p.m. ET/5:25 p.m. PT [Friday 00:25]

TV: CBS, Directv 212, (US); Sky Sports 1/HD (UK)

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, 58°, Winds SW 9-14 mph, 69% Humidity

Current Point Spread: Patriots -8 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Lowest Total in Marketplace: 51 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Consensus Total in Marketplace: 51

Highest Total in Marketplace: 52 (Station Casinos)

Alternate Total: Under 50½ -105 Over 50½ -128 (bet365)

Alternate Total: Under 50 -100 Over 50 -133 (bet365)

Alternate Total: Under 53 -150 Over 53½ +114 (bet365)

Alternate Total: Under 54 -175 Over 54 +125 (bet365)

Alternate Total: Under 56 -162 Over 55 +162 (bet365)

First Half Total: 24½ Under -125, Over -110 (PaddyPower)


***Dolphins vs. Patriots Thursday Night Betting Preview***
***Dolphins vs. Patriots Thursday Night ATS Pick***
***Dolphins Player Props for Thursday Night Football***
***Patriots Player Props for Thursday Night Football***


Current Realities Heading Into This Game
This primetime AFC East meeting from Foxboro Stadium at Gillette Stadium between New England (6-0 SU, 3-1-2 ATS) and QB Tom Brady (70-48-5 ATS at Home) and the Miami Dolphins (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) on Thursday Night Football seems like it would be a high-scoring affair just by the nature of the way these two teams have been playing and the accuracy of both starting QBs.

Last week, the Dolphins did a Rain Dance on the lowly Houston Texans, winning 44-26 at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens on Sunday as Miami QB Ryan Tannehill (282 yards, 4 TDs) was a near-perfect 18-for-19 Passing and actually set an NFL Record, completing 25 straight passes over his last 2 games. Yes, that Ryan Tannehill. Besides Florida State product Tannehill, the Dolphins also got a big Offensive games from RB Lamar Miller (14 Rushes, 175 yards, TD) and WR Jarvis Landry (5 receptions, 83 yards, 2 TDs, 16.3 ypc). In the Patriots last game against the Cowboys in Dallas in Week 7, New England rolled to a 30-23 victory as Brady was 34-for-54 for 365 yards and 2 TDs in a game in which his receivers actually dropped a number of balls. So, 54 Passes, 365 yards and 30 points playing a mediocre game for the Patriots.

Expect fewer drops and more Focus from the Patriots (Overs 24-9 L33 vs. AFC East) who are appear to be addicted to winning and addicted to scoring. Here are the Final Scores, posted Totals and Results for the L10 games played here at Gillette Stadium (FieldTurf playing surface).


Total Results Last 10 Meetings Miami Dolphins—New England Patriots at New England (Gillette Stadium, Foxboro)
2014—@ Patriots 41 Dolphins 13
Total: 49
Result: Over

2013—@ Patriots 27 Dolphins 17
Total: 46
Result: Under (by 2 points)

2012—@ Patriots 28 Dolphins 0
Total: 48
Result: Under

2011—@ Patriots 27 Dolphins 24
Total: 49
Result: Over (by 2 points)

2010—@ Patriots 38 Dolphins 7
Total: 44
Result: Over (by 1 point)

2009—@ Patriots 27 Dolphins 17
Total: 47
Result: Under (by 3 points)

2008—Dolphins 38 @ Patriots 13
Total: 37
Result: Over (by 4 points)

2007—@ Patriots 28 Dolphins 7
Total: 45
Result: Under

2006—@ Patriots 20 Dolphins 10
Total: 36½
Result: Under

2005—Dolphins 28 @ Patriots 26 
Total: 37
Result: Over


Series Trends & Game Expectations
As you can see, in New England these two AFC East sides have played 5 Overs and 5 Unders over the L10 meetings with the Over 4-2 in the L6 here, more relevant because of the recency. And both Miami and New England are 4-2 Overs headed in here, so this should be a good viewing game on Thursday with plenty of Passing. When these two played last season, the Patriots won and covered as 9-point chalks in this game at Home, 41-13, while in Week 1 in Miami last year, the Dolphins upset New England, 33-20 as 3-point underdogs.

The Trends here see the Patriots 3-0 ATS the L3 here in Foxboro (41-13, 27-17, 28-0) and with New England Head Coach Bill Belichick knowing the importance of Home-field advantage in the Postseason, expect a double-digit win here over Miami (33/1 to win AFC, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power) and another big performance from the hosts and the NFL’s most reliable player, Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski (career-high 11 Receptions, 108 yards, TD) on Thursday evening. New England has scored the most points in the AFC (213) and has only allowed 126. Miami is 12-2 ATS its L14 games in Week 8 and the Under is 13-3 the L16 Dolphins dates in Week 8 while the Under is a powerful 21-6 the L27 Miami games on FieldTurf (Gillette Stadium surface) although for New England (6-2 Over L8 Thursday games) on this surface (FieldTurf), the Over is an overwhelming 48-20 in the L68 games (70.6%). That's good.

Here, expect Brady and the Patriots (+114 to win AFC, Winner) to try to get off to a fast start, using WR Danny Amendola, WR Julian Edelman, WR Brandon LaFell and dependable TE Rob Gronkowski (Career high Receptions last game) in their Arena Football-type Offense which is very conducive to Overs. The Patriots should score 4 to 5 TDs and get 1 or 2 FGs while Tannehill will work hard to keep his Passing hot, although expect heavy doses of RB Lamar Miller and for Miami and new Head Coach Dan Campbell to try to keep possession—and the ball out of superstar Brady’s hands—by racking up First Downs, but it won’t work at noisy Gillette Stadium in primetime, and expect the Fish to be down double-digits by Halftime, forcing them to throw the pigskin more. This should be a blowout with New England Head Coach Bill Belichick (154-114-2 ATS) seeking out and destroying another overrated opponent with Homefield Advantage in the AFC (again) in the forefront of his brilliant 63-year-old football mind.

Predicted Final Score: Patriots 38 Dolphins 20

NFL Picks: Over 51 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), 1st Half Over 24½ (PaddyPower)

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