Bet Cowboys as Home Favorites vs. Texans Week 5 NFL Picks

Steven Suarez

Wednesday, October 1, 2014 2:24 PM GMT

There's no doubt about who the favorites are in Week 5, when the Cowboys and Texans battle it out for bragging right in the state of Texas. Dallas enters as the clear-cut home favorite, but will we be backing Tony Romo and company with our NFL picks?

Already we've seen an amazing amount of line movement, and we've still got plenty of time left until Sunday's kickoff.

At time of writing, the Cowboys had moved from 4-point favorites to 6- or even 7-point chalk at a lot of NFL betting sites. Clearly the public liked the opening number that came with Dallas, driving the spread up considerably in the process.

Dallas in 2014-15 Regular Season: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, +7.2 margin of victory

Injury Watch: Tony Romo (probable), Morris Claiborne (out), Bruce Carter (questionable), Terrell McClain (questionable), Davon Coleman (questionable), Josh Brent (out), Jakar Hamilton (out)

Houston in 2014-15 Regular Season: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, +5.0 margin of victory

Injury Watch: Arian Foster (questionable), Andre Johnson (probable), Jadeveon Clowney (out), Eddie Pleasant (questionable), A.J. Bouye (questionable)

After a very disappointing showing Week 1 at home against the 49ers, the Cowboys have certainly turned the corner, reeling off three straight wins. Last weekend, Dallas had no trouble getting past New Orleans in a 38-17 home win. It was a straight up victory for a Cowboys team that was classified as the ATS underdog coming in.

Tony Romo threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns in the win. He connected with Terrance Williams for scores on two occasions, and also found Dez Bryant for a scoring play. No surprise there. Romo spread the love though, finding eight different receivers in an all-around highly efficient game from Dallas offensively. The Cowboys also got another outstanding performance from running back DeMarco Murray, who rushed 24 times for 149 yards and two TDs, while adding a catch for six yards. 

Credit Dallas' defense as well, as holding Drew Brees and the Saints to 17 points is no easy feat in itself. Brees still threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns, but a lot of his success came in garbage time, when the Cowboys had already wrapped things up.

Whereas it was a walk in the park for Dallas, Houston had a far harder time in its victory over Buffalo, a win that moved the Texans to 3-1 on the season.

The Texans did hang on for the 23-17 win, but it wasn't easy. Houston had quite a hard time moving the football, but the team's defensive unit stood strong in the victory. J.J. Watt and company forced two interceptions and sacked opposing QB E.J. Manuel twice -- the second-year quarterback had to settle for a dreadful QBR of 7.4. Yikes.

Offensively, the Texans' Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 268 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. That being said, he got virtually no help from the ground attack, as Houston totaled only 37 rushing yards overall. Fitzpatrick was the leading rusher on the day, which tells you all you need to know. As far as wideouts go, Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins and Arian Foster all went for at least 55 receiving yards in the narrow win.

What kind of effort will see on both sides of the ball from the Texans in Week 5?

 

Suarez Says:
We're not entirely convinced about the Texans, regardless of their excellent start. They've still got a shaky guy leading the offense in Fitzpatrick, and his mistakes are likely to come back and bite Houston sooner rather than later.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are clicking on all cylinders, and have to be feeling great about their chances after showing up both offensively and defensively against New Orleans. Momentum can be a scary thing, and Dallas certainly has that going for them at the moment.

As you could probably deduce, we're angling towards the Cowboys with our NFL picks. The line is high, but we still expect the home team to cover.

NFL Pick: Cowboys -6 at BookMaker

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