Bet Chiefs & Vikings to Go 'Under' 43.5 With Your NFL Picks

Jason Lake

Friday, October 16, 2015 7:54 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 16, 2015 7:54 PM GMT

With Jamaal Charles out of the equation, people seem content to put the UNDER in their Week 6 NFL picks when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Minnesota Vikings.

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 16: 18-12 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 12-19 Total

There are some people who think waiting until later in the week to make your NFL picks is a load of codswallop. Indeed, betting early is usually the right play, but not always. Case in point: Thursday night's game between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints. We had the UNDER on the total of 51.5 when we went to press, but by kick-off, it was up to 52 and even 52.5 at some locations. Final score: Atlanta 21, New Orleans 31.

Sunday's game (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Minnesota Vikings is not one of those situations. Quite the opposite: This time, getting in early with the UNDER would have been prudent. The total for this matchup opened at 44 points on our NFL odds board, then fell to 43 after the sharps started pounding the UNDER at a 2:1 ratio. We doubt the public will come in and pump up that total this time. Dang it.

 

Poe Faced
Dropping from 44 to 43 isn't anything to sneeze at. The computer projections I see around the Web-O-Sphere are congregating around a final of Kansas City 20, Minnesota 23, with a lean toward a higher score. And when it comes to totals, 44 is one of the more magical numbers out there. The difference between 44 and 43.5 is worth 8.5 cents, according to Wizard of Odds. That's like moving from +1 to +2 against the spread.

Anyway, we're still going to recommend the UNDER here at the home office. This was the sharp pick right out of the gate, with the Kansas City Chiefs (OVER 4-1) losing RB Jamaal Charles (knee) for the rest of the season. We're not nearly as happy with the total at 43, though, nor with NT Dontari Poe (ankle) also likely to miss Sunday's game. Those sunny skies in the forecast aren't helping, either.

 

Block and Tackle
But then you have Minnesota's offensive line. The Minnesota Vikings (UNDER 4-0) were looking for better things on offense this year with the return of RB Adrian Peterson and the continuing development of QB Teddy Bridgewater, but things went pear-shaped when RT Phil Loadholt (Achilles) and center John Sullivan (back) went on injured reserve before the season even started. At least Sullivan might be back in Week 10.

These absences haven't put much of a damper on Minnesota's run blocking, which ranks No. 3 overall according to the statheads at Football Outsiders. But pass protection has been brutal – the Vikings are No. 27 in the league with an adjusted sack rate of 9.4 percent. If Minnesota runs the ball up Kansas City's gut all day, fine. Those chains are going to have to move pretty quickly to get the OVER to the pay window before the clock runs out.

NFL Picks: Take UNDER 43.5 (–110) at BetOnline

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