Bet on Chiefs to Steamroll Rams in Kansas City

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 24, 2014 6:16 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 24, 2014 6:16 PM UTC

This NFL handicapper's ultimate goal with these valuable articles is to find one team who will dominate their opponent at the line of scrimmage. Find out the details for Rams vs. Chiefs.

Before making your Week 8 NFL pick on the St. Louis Rams vs. Kansas City Rams, understand that in this matchup, many of the factors are at work which I use to indicate overland dominance in an NFL game. In this way, they control the flow of the game and have fewer opportunities to make mistakes.  Remember that when you put the ball in the air, 3 things can happen!  Two of them are not good for the offensive team.  Reinforcing that thought process, in terms of ATS success, I relate to you that since 2000, any NFL team who rushes their opponent by 30 or more yards in any given game has a 75% chance to beat the pointspread.  In the previous 4 years, that record is 517-171 ATS (75.1%).  This season, the record is 60-16 ATS (78.9%).  Other key indicators of pointspread success were outlined in my recent Pointspread Prognosis article entitled “Run to the Bank.”  In that article, I pointed out that teams who run the ball 30 or more times in the game, cover at a rate of 256-60 ATS (81%).  This season, that record is 60-8 ATS (88.2%).  Considering the opposite end of the spectrum, we find that teams who run 22 or less times in any given game, while their opponent does not, are a 2 year play AGAINST of 241-45 ATS (84.2%).  This year, that number is 59-8 ATS (88%).  In the following paragraphs, I will detail why we will have such edges with my selection.  There will also be situational/technical support for our SIDE.

Each of these teams enters following notable upset victories.  In fact, KC was our UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK winner in their 23-20 upset of San Diego.  That victory was for real, as the Chiefs outrushed the Chargers 154-69 en rout to a 365-251 yardage edge.  That win was the 5thconsecutive cover for the Chiefs, following their head-scratching 26-10 home loss to Tennessee to start the season.  In those 5 spread victories, the Chiefs have covered by 68 points.  For St. Louis, their 28-26 victory over defending Super Bowl and Divisional rival, Seattle, was a bit more head-scratching.  In a TO free game, St. Louis recorded that victory, despite the fact that Seattle had an overland edge of 171-102 and a 463-272 yardage edge for the game.  But, the KC upset playing to form in the stats and the St. Louis victory being tough to compute, there is certainly greater reason to back the Chiefs today.  Now, let’s turn to the fundamental matchup. 

St. Louis is allowing opponents to run the ball an average of 30 times a game for 145/4.8.  Their defense allows 29 PPG (only TBay is worse), while their 6.3 YP play defense is tied for the worst in the league with Carolina and Atlanta.  In short, it is doubtful that they will be able to curb the Chief’s overland attack.

KC is far more successful moving the football on the ground.  Under HC Reid, the Chiefs average running the football 31 times per game for 138/4.5.  It is an easy leap to believe they will control the ball on the ground all afternoon. 

The fact KC is just 2-11 ATS as home chalk is a bit disconcerting.  But the situation is far worse for St. Louis.  In the NFL, underdogs, who just upset greater than .500 defending Super Bowl champs, are a lowly 10-31 ATS.  The fact this is a double-division sandwich for St. Louis is even more of an issue.  For this trip to KC is sandwiched between a pair of much higher profile home games vs. San Fran and Seattle the previous 2 weeks, while there are road trips on deck in the next two weeks against division rivals, San Fran and Arizona.   

When the fundamentals and the situations each lineup in our favor, we can only expect the Chiefs to STEAMROLL the Rams into submission this Sunday.              

Free NFL Pick: Chiefs at SportsInteraction

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