Bet Chiefs ATS for Week 9 NFL Picks vs. Jets

Jason Lake

Monday, October 27, 2014 6:47 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 27, 2014 6:47 PM GMT

So much for Percy Harvin making a difference with the New York Jets. But if they finally decide to pull the plug on Geno Smith, maybe they’ll be able to beat the NFL odds when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs.

Jason’s Record After Week 7: 22-29 ATS, 7-11-1 Totals

Profit: minus-29.68 units

 

Some days, you can’t win for losing. We added the Seattle Seahawks to our Week 7 NFL picks after they traded Percy Harvin to the New York Jets, but that turned out to be wrong – Seattle’s players were generally upset that they lost someone as talented as Harvin, and they haven’t covered since. So we bet on the Jets in Week 8. We even gave them the coveted BeeVee Award as 3-point home faves against the Buffalo Bills. Harvin was an afterthought in a 43-23 Bills victory.

So now we have the Jets (1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) limping into Week 9 as 9.5-point road dogs against the Kansas City Chiefs (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS), who have won back-to-back games SU and ATS since enjoying the bye in Week 6. Does anyone want to bet on New York in this situation? Maybe a few people. Our consensus reports at press time show 40 percent support for the Jets at +10.5 (–135), which is close enough to +9.5 at the standard –110 juice. Just a small premium of about four cents for going over the Magic No. 10.

 

Shoulder Arms
We can’t even begin to talk about the finer aspects of “fair prices” and comparison shopping in this matchup. The big deal here is that the Jets have yet to throw Geno Smith under the bus. Smith has failed to show any development in his sophomore season – if anything, the former college standout at West Virginia has regressed:

Smith 2013: 66.5 passer rating, minus-23.6% passing DVOA, 5.1 yards per carry
Smith 2014: 65.6 passer rating, minus-25.3% passing DVOA, 4.0 yards per carry

Those 2014 DVOA numbers from Football Outsiders are through Week 7, by the way. They’re only going to get worse after Smith had one of the worst days a quarterback can have on the field, throwing interceptions on three consecutive series in the first quarter. Smith was replaced by Michael Vick, but just like in Week 5 against the San Diego Chargers, Vick failed to do much in relief against the Bills.

Which brings us to Sunday afternoon’s game (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) against the Chiefs. Jets head coach Rex Ryan has yet to name his starting quarterback as we go to press; rumor has it that Vick will get the nod, but there is fear that Ryan will be pressured by the front office to give Smith another chance. There’s also the matter of this possible shoulder injury that Smith may have suffered against Buffalo. The Jets have yet to reveal the X-ray results. Smells fishy.

 

Change for a Thirty
It doesn’t seem to matter too much as far as the NFL odds are concerned. With Vick failing to deliver as of yet, the books didn’t hesitate to put the Chiefs on the board as big home faves. But our expanded consensus reports show that early bettors aren’t quite ready to lay serious wood on either side. While the Chiefs have the edge in raw numbers, the average bet size on Kansas City is just $30, same as it is for New York.

We’d obviously prefer some news on who’ll start for the Jets before we make our NFL picks. There might be some value in following Vick if he gets close to a full week of practice in with the first unit. But so far, we’ve seen nothing from the Jets but dysfunction, while the Chiefs have been running a pretty tight ship this year. Give us a star, Vasili. One star only, please.

 

The Five Stars
Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: KC
Defense/Special Teams: KC
Coaching: KC
Market Bias: NYJ
Betting Line Value: NYJ

Verdict: 1-star pick on KC

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Chiefs –9.5 (–108) at LooseLines

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