Bet Browns Over Titans for Week 5 NFL Picks

Swinging Johnson

Monday, September 29, 2014 5:34 PM GMT

Monday, Sep. 29, 2014 5:34 PM GMT

The Browns have hung tough in all of their games thus far and are coming off a bye week while the Titans are reeling after three consecutive losses but where is the value in our NFL picks between these two teams on Sunday?

Cleveland Browns (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)
If it were not for a last second field goal by Ravens kicker Justin Tucker, the Browns would be sitting pretty with a 2-1 straight up record and a perfect 3-0 ATS in NFL odds. But that was not to be as the Browns bowed to Baltimore as 1 ½ -point home dogs by the razor thin score of 23-21. The Browns however were not without fault as they committed 12 penalties, missed a field goal and had one blocked. Cleveland continues to sabotage themselves despite what appears to be an improvement over recent years.

The Browns’ quarterback controversy that precipitated the regular season has been laid to rest as Brian Hoyer has been solid in the pocket for Cleveland. Though he has not posted eye-popping numbers Hoyer has been effective in distributing the football as evidenced by his most recent game against the Ravens when he connected with six different receivers and tossed for 290 yards, a season high, including one TD strike to Miles Austin. Hoyer has thrown for one touchdown pass in all three games but perhaps just as importantly has not thrown an interception this season.

 

Tennessee Titans (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
The Titans got waxed last week by the Colts and staggered back to Nashville after their 41-17 loss put them at 1-3 on the young season. Installed as seven-point road dogs in NFL odds, the betting line never wavered but the Titans were clearly overmatched by the prolific passing of Andrew Luck who struck for four passing touchdowns and 393 yards through the air. To be fair, the Titans were without the services of starting signal caller Jake Locker and instead turned their offense over to veteran backup Charlie Whitehurst. However the mismatch was so lopsided it hardly mattered who Tennessee put under center as Indianapolis had their way throughout.

Tennessee is still not sure if Locker will be back for Sunday’s game and it appears as though Whitehurst did just enough to retain the backup role versus the highly touted rookie Zach Mettenberger who did little in garbage time to warrant much consideration this week. Despite the high voltage numbers put up by Andrew Luck last week the Titans are still ranked 9th in the league in passing defense, allowing an average of only 225.8 yards per game. However, their run defense is ranked 22nd while their offense continues to lag ranking 28th in passing yards and 17th in rushing yards.

 

Free NFL Pick
It’s hard to fall in love with either of these teams in terms of backing them as one of your Week 5 NFL picks but there is an opening we would like to exploit. Tennessee is currently installed as 1 ½ point home favorites in NFL odds but that line could change as the status of Jake Locker becomes clear. Personally, I don’t think Locker will do much to improve their chances over a game Cleveland squad that has gone toe-to-toe with much better clubs in Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Baltimore.

Stat geeks may be interested to know that Tennessee is 7-17 ATS in NFL odds over the past three seasons when playing on six days or less rest while the Browns have had almost two full weeks to prepare for this one. I also like the way Brian Hoyer has been playing which is to say he has not tried to do too much and has demonstrated a propensitor y to play within not only the system but his abilities.

NFL Picks: Browns +1 ½ at 5Dimes.com

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